Thursday, July 7, 2011

Back to regular life and setups

So wouldn't you know it, there's a setup on the way that looks really good. I'm talking spectacular. Let's talk about it.

Moisture is at its peak right now. Surface dews are progged to be in the low 20s. Up to 850, even, it looks to be moist--dews over 15°C.

That will lead to slightly-capped MLCAPEs in excess of 1000 and even 1500 J/kg. Not too shabby, if you ask me.

With 500 mb flow increasing with the approach of a vigorous trough, deep-layer shear will be good--great, if you add in the 850 mb winds crossing rather nicely (shown above).

Surface lifting will, I suppose, be a question but if a front or outflow boundary sharpens up, the game will be on.

If I were chasing, I would aim for Weyburn, SK, for an initial target and go from there.