We're sitting in Perry, Oklahoma, north of OKC. It looks like things are going to fire along a composite warm front/outflow boundary just to our north, but we're also in place if things go on the dryline sitting to our west.
Moisture, instability, shear, trigger: they're all there. Now we play the waiting game. Will we catch our big storm today? Time will tell.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Day 4 recap
So many emotions today. We started off going toward Tulsa, expecting storms to initiate along the dryline and move east.
The dryline did its thing to our north, and once again we were playing catch-up. Mad and frustrated. We expected storms to go all the way down the line, but that wasn't the way it was to go. So we forayed into southeast Kansas, and could never catch up with the storm. Exasperated and vexed. We were close for a long time but it kept accelerating.
We got to the outskirts of Joplin, MO, about 2 miles behind the tornado. We couldn't see it but a) it looked scary on Doppler, and b) we would have to go through a bunch of large hail to catch it. So we bailed south. Terrified at times.
After much south driving, we got to a storm that was gathering strength but we couldn't get to it because of the terrain and lack of roads. Sad and mad.
Then there was another storm we could sort of get to, and we watched it produce a tornado after sunset--we barely saw it. Longing.
We stopped for some lightning pictures along the way. Happiness.
On the way back to the hotel, now, we're hearing reports of major damage and deaths in Joplin. Horrified.
What an exhausting day.
The dryline did its thing to our north, and once again we were playing catch-up. Mad and frustrated. We expected storms to go all the way down the line, but that wasn't the way it was to go. So we forayed into southeast Kansas, and could never catch up with the storm. Exasperated and vexed. We were close for a long time but it kept accelerating.
We got to the outskirts of Joplin, MO, about 2 miles behind the tornado. We couldn't see it but a) it looked scary on Doppler, and b) we would have to go through a bunch of large hail to catch it. So we bailed south. Terrified at times.
After much south driving, we got to a storm that was gathering strength but we couldn't get to it because of the terrain and lack of roads. Sad and mad.
Then there was another storm we could sort of get to, and we watched it produce a tornado after sunset--we barely saw it. Longing.
We stopped for some lightning pictures along the way. Happiness.
On the way back to the hotel, now, we're hearing reports of major damage and deaths in Joplin. Horrified.
What an exhausting day.
Day 4 forecast
There's a huge area of instability now. MLCAPEs are looking to be in the 3000 to 4000 j/kg range from Oklahoma to Illinois. Flow in the whole area is pretty good, but the best will be in Oklahoma.
That, and the fact that chase terrain is better there, in addition to wanting to be in position for tomorrow, made us decide to try Tulsa. We're currently on the road (no, of course I'm not driving!) and look to be there for just after 1 PM.
We expect a dryline will once again trigger storms and they'll experience lots of shear, moving off toward the northeast. We'll of course have to stay out of the way, though, because the hail is likely to be huge. Baseballs or larger.
Wish us luck!
That, and the fact that chase terrain is better there, in addition to wanting to be in position for tomorrow, made us decide to try Tulsa. We're currently on the road (no, of course I'm not driving!) and look to be there for just after 1 PM.
We expect a dryline will once again trigger storms and they'll experience lots of shear, moving off toward the northeast. We'll of course have to stay out of the way, though, because the hail is likely to be huge. Baseballs or larger.
Wish us luck!
Day 3 summary
We lunched in Wichita (Chipotle!) then sat for a while in Emporia, where a line of cumuli was persistently sending up pulses. A storm went and it looked kind of lame visually, and so we let it be. Another one went, looked lame again and we let it be. Then, one of the storms we had seen started to look good (according to RADAR) and we were torn: it was going into a relatively dry area, so the tornado potential was reduced. But it was the only game in town.
We got to Topeka after the storm decided to get a monster hook and hit Tulsa hard, with 5 inch hail. The wall cloud was rotating quite nicely, but it was pretty high-based--I would say 6000 feet or thereabouts.
We followed it along until nightfall, but it never really came close again.
While that was going on, my CoD friends sat just southwest of Emporia. Their patience paid off, as initiation along that part of the line finally occurred, starting up the storm of the day. That storm ended up producing a tornado that badly damaged the town of Reading, where one person was unfortunately killed and 5 were injured.
The storm then went on to produce nighttime tornadoes. It looked impressive on RADAR; we could have caught up to it, but doing so at night would be the epitome of hubris, not to mention just pointless and stupid.
Anyhow, patience paid off for my friends, but I don't know that I would have done anything differently. I'll try not to dwell on it too much. There's so much more chasing to do.
We got to Topeka after the storm decided to get a monster hook and hit Tulsa hard, with 5 inch hail. The wall cloud was rotating quite nicely, but it was pretty high-based--I would say 6000 feet or thereabouts.
We followed it along until nightfall, but it never really came close again.
While that was going on, my CoD friends sat just southwest of Emporia. Their patience paid off, as initiation along that part of the line finally occurred, starting up the storm of the day. That storm ended up producing a tornado that badly damaged the town of Reading, where one person was unfortunately killed and 5 were injured.
The storm then went on to produce nighttime tornadoes. It looked impressive on RADAR; we could have caught up to it, but doing so at night would be the epitome of hubris, not to mention just pointless and stupid.
Anyhow, patience paid off for my friends, but I don't know that I would have done anything differently. I'll try not to dwell on it too much. There's so much more chasing to do.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Day 3
Today we're taking off north out of Norman. The moisture sees to be in place everywhere east of I-35 and south of South Dakota. So figuring out where to go will be more of a determination of wind shear, as well as logistics.
Therein lies the problem.
The better deep shear will be south, with a 50 knot jet streak emerging out of Texas. Still, though, 40 knots farther north isn't too shabby.
The better low-level shear looks to be in Kansas, with a diffuse surface low right now near Dodge City. This will likely move eastward, backing the winds in its path.
So we have decided to head to Wichita for lunch, then reassess. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on southeast KS, from Emporia to Coffeyville.
The next couple of days are interesting, with a potential cap bust in northeast Oklahoma tomorrow, then two days of triple point play in Kansas and Nebraska. After that, it appears the Gulf will shut down for a couple of days, so we will likely be heading home at that point.
Therein lies the problem.
The better deep shear will be south, with a 50 knot jet streak emerging out of Texas. Still, though, 40 knots farther north isn't too shabby.
The better low-level shear looks to be in Kansas, with a diffuse surface low right now near Dodge City. This will likely move eastward, backing the winds in its path.
So we have decided to head to Wichita for lunch, then reassess. If I were a betting man, I would put my money on southeast KS, from Emporia to Coffeyville.
The next couple of days are interesting, with a potential cap bust in northeast Oklahoma tomorrow, then two days of triple point play in Kansas and Nebraska. After that, it appears the Gulf will shut down for a couple of days, so we will likely be heading home at that point.
Day 2 recap: ugh
The less said about yesterday, the better.
I'll just say that it was plain that storms would be plentiful and some would rotate. Thing is, an overnight MCS made us go to Texas, where, between construction and stop lights (seems kind of like the perimeter highway around Winnipeg) we could never catch up with storms.
Anyhow, we are in Norman, OK and anxiously await what today brings, somewhere between here and Wichita and points east, I think. Now onto the analysis...
I'll just say that it was plain that storms would be plentiful and some would rotate. Thing is, an overnight MCS made us go to Texas, where, between construction and stop lights (seems kind of like the perimeter highway around Winnipeg) we could never catch up with storms.
Anyhow, we are in Norman, OK and anxiously await what today brings, somewhere between here and Wichita and points east, I think. Now onto the analysis...
Friday, May 20, 2011
Day 2: reassessment and change of plans
We are now looking to the Oklahoma/Texas border. Better moisture, better upper winds, and less likely to be cloudy all day. We'll see if that pays off.
Heck, at this point we'll see if this decision lasts into the afternoon at all.
Heck, at this point we'll see if this decision lasts into the afternoon at all.
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