Dave...
NW Kansas looks good tomorrow (Friday)...the flow at 500mb is a bit messy...but that should resolve itself in the next couple of model runs. Tomorrow's little impulse on WV looks to be rounding the base of the trough late today/early tomorrow. Aside from that everything else looks good. I'd target somewhere West and North of Hays, Kansas....looks like a potential dryline/warm front play...capping may be an issue meaning storms will fire later...but you should be able squeeze enough daylight out to see something good. Given the time of year and upcoming solstice should allow for good storm visibility till at least 9:30pm if under the anvil.
Saturday looks like a wiper-blade play...your guess is as good as mine in terms of a target area...but right now I'd say Beaver to Buffalo, Oklahoma...that's right I said Beaver! Greatest shear profiles will reside around there and the cold wedge of doom will definitely trigger something.
Sunday looks good again in South Central Kansas if the return flow can set up after the Cold fropa from Saturday....target area? Somewhere near Wichita... Beyond that...who knows!!!
Anyhoots...it's unfortunate that you can't chase today...I'd be somewhere near Sidney, Nebraska today waiting for the mothership around 6pm!
chasse d'orage de bonne chance!
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Where to go, when to leave?
We're looking at things and wondering whether to leave today for a chase tomorrow in western KS or whether to leave tomorrow for a chase tomorrow in eastern NE.
My vote is for Kansas--leaving today. The instability looks pretty similar in both locations; however, the shear looks good in KS and not good at all in NE.
There are some logistical reasons that we would have to hold off on going, but I hope they can be worked out.
Big risk and big reward is on tap. Let's see if we take the risk.
My vote is for Kansas--leaving today. The instability looks pretty similar in both locations; however, the shear looks good in KS and not good at all in NE.
There are some logistical reasons that we would have to hold off on going, but I hope they can be worked out.
Big risk and big reward is on tap. Let's see if we take the risk.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Dave's going chasing with CoD
So I leave in the morning for a chase with CoD. We're planning on leaving Thursday to be in place for a Friday chase. The pattern looks good to catch some good storms, especially on the first couple of days of the chase. Here's hoping!
I plan on blogging about the chase here, when I can. But other links that will help you keep up with us are here:
Our GPS location
Our Twitter account (I will likely be tweeting)
Paul's blog
Keep up!
I plan on blogging about the chase here, when I can. But other links that will help you keep up with us are here:
Our GPS location
Our Twitter account (I will likely be tweeting)
Paul's blog
Keep up!
Friday, June 4, 2010
My Baca Co. and Cimarron Co. Memorial Day Tornado Video
Well here is my video of the tornadoes that occurred in SE Colorado and NW Oklahoma on May 31st, 2010. It was a beautiful storm...enjoy!
Review of model forecasts vs. where storms were most severe
While I have a bit of time, I will wrap up talking about the futility of where storms will be, based on (especially extended) model output. I will write a date, the locations in the various forecasts and the actual location in parentheses. This should be fun.
May 29: Brandon, MB; Minot, ND; Dickinson, ND; Scottsbluff, NE; Ogallala, NE; Glendive, MT; Chamberlain, SD; Ogallala, NE (Mission, SD)
May 30: Wall, SD; Omaha, NE; Limon, CO; Salina, KS; nowhere; Lusk, WY (Enid, OK)
May 31: Beatrice, NE; Topeka, KS; nowhere; Oklahoma City, OK; Broadus, MT; Garden City, KS; Brush, CO (Campo, CO) (note that this day, a beautiful tornado day, had a few forecasts saying "nowhere")
June 1: Hebron, NE; Lusk, WY; Yuma, CO; Lusk, WY; NE/KS; Ogallala, NE (Omaha, NE)
Wow, what sucky forecasts. Is there any wonder I don't trust forecast models very much? Yes I know I use them, and they're usually pretty good in the 24 hour range, but aside from that--no way!
May 29: Brandon, MB; Minot, ND; Dickinson, ND; Scottsbluff, NE; Ogallala, NE; Glendive, MT; Chamberlain, SD; Ogallala, NE (Mission, SD)
May 30: Wall, SD; Omaha, NE; Limon, CO; Salina, KS; nowhere; Lusk, WY (Enid, OK)
May 31: Beatrice, NE; Topeka, KS; nowhere; Oklahoma City, OK; Broadus, MT; Garden City, KS; Brush, CO (Campo, CO) (note that this day, a beautiful tornado day, had a few forecasts saying "nowhere")
June 1: Hebron, NE; Lusk, WY; Yuma, CO; Lusk, WY; NE/KS; Ogallala, NE (Omaha, NE)
Wow, what sucky forecasts. Is there any wonder I don't trust forecast models very much? Yes I know I use them, and they're usually pretty good in the 24 hour range, but aside from that--no way!
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
June 1, 2010: big day expected, crap day ensued
Wow, that was so unbelievably anticlimactic. After a) yesterday's unexpected awesomeness and b) today's expected awesome-er-ness, the actual happening for the day was really a let-down.
We started the morning in Dodge City, Kansas (KDDC, my fave, as DDC are my initials) and bombed northwest to be in place for initiation. We stopped for an awesome lunch at Hog Wild Pit BBQ in Salina and took off north. We saw anvils way ahead of us, anvils from a morning MCS that was going on over southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska. ACC dotted the sky and as we got into Nebraska a fairly juicy field of cumulus clouds greeted us. Good omens all.
As many know, I'm an ingredients-based forecaster. I love just breaking forecasting severe thunderstorms down into forecasting the component ingredients: moisture, instability, shear and trigger. Well, the 4 were well-satisfied. For moisture, we had surface dewpoints in the low 2os Celsius. Instability was plentiful, with widespread 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE over most of Nebraska. Wind shear was good, with 40 knots or more of deep-layer shear over the area. Low-level shear was not bad and forecast to improve with the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. Further, low-level shear was to be maximized along the outflow boundary.
So what was the problem?
In short, I don't know, and all of us in the vehicle are trying to figure it out.
I think it was or could have been a couple of things. First off, an early- to mid-morning MCS also hit southern Nebraska. This could have overturned the atmosphere, making it much more stable than the models led us to believe. Second off, the low-level jet may have been a bit too late to counteract the outflow dominance of the storms that kept going from the northern Nebraska MCS. Third, the timing of the upper wave and therefore the major lift appears to have been a bit earlier than we would have preferred, as it meant the formation of a surface low near Lincoln, NE and veered winds (and therefore less low-level directional shear) made for less convergence at peak time.
All in all, for all the hype:
We got a bow echo-ish thing. It had a bookend vortex tornadic supercell on its north end, near Omaha. But otherwise ... nothing worth looking at. Even the shelf cloud of the storm was only okay.
So Dee and I have night shifts tomorrow night, so we stopped at Jazz in Omaha for dinner (very good Louisiana food) and are now heading to Brookings, SD with our tails between our legs from today.
Don't get me wrong: this trip was a total success, and we said yesterday that anything we saw today would be gravy.
But still, that gravy was pretty insipid.
We started the morning in Dodge City, Kansas (KDDC, my fave, as DDC are my initials) and bombed northwest to be in place for initiation. We stopped for an awesome lunch at Hog Wild Pit BBQ in Salina and took off north. We saw anvils way ahead of us, anvils from a morning MCS that was going on over southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska. ACC dotted the sky and as we got into Nebraska a fairly juicy field of cumulus clouds greeted us. Good omens all.
As many know, I'm an ingredients-based forecaster. I love just breaking forecasting severe thunderstorms down into forecasting the component ingredients: moisture, instability, shear and trigger. Well, the 4 were well-satisfied. For moisture, we had surface dewpoints in the low 2os Celsius. Instability was plentiful, with widespread 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE over most of Nebraska. Wind shear was good, with 40 knots or more of deep-layer shear over the area. Low-level shear was not bad and forecast to improve with the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. Further, low-level shear was to be maximized along the outflow boundary.
So what was the problem?
In short, I don't know, and all of us in the vehicle are trying to figure it out.
I think it was or could have been a couple of things. First off, an early- to mid-morning MCS also hit southern Nebraska. This could have overturned the atmosphere, making it much more stable than the models led us to believe. Second off, the low-level jet may have been a bit too late to counteract the outflow dominance of the storms that kept going from the northern Nebraska MCS. Third, the timing of the upper wave and therefore the major lift appears to have been a bit earlier than we would have preferred, as it meant the formation of a surface low near Lincoln, NE and veered winds (and therefore less low-level directional shear) made for less convergence at peak time.
All in all, for all the hype:
We got a bow echo-ish thing. It had a bookend vortex tornadic supercell on its north end, near Omaha. But otherwise ... nothing worth looking at. Even the shelf cloud of the storm was only okay.
So Dee and I have night shifts tomorrow night, so we stopped at Jazz in Omaha for dinner (very good Louisiana food) and are now heading to Brookings, SD with our tails between our legs from today.
Don't get me wrong: this trip was a total success, and we said yesterday that anything we saw today would be gravy.
But still, that gravy was pretty insipid.
June 1st, 2010: Big Day Expected
We are currently driving to York, Nebraska to wait for initiation. Tornado chances look great for us and everyone chasing today although the set up is a bit worrisome in terms of the area that may be affected and the size of the hail that might fall. The SPC has upgraded to a moderate risk and will likely issue a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Watch later this afternoon due to the possibility of monster hail and strong tornadoes
I'm going to try and stream live today via justin.tv since we will likely be in a great reception area. I've embedded the stream to this blog...hopefully it works out.
Watch live video from Winnipeg, Manitoba Storm Chasers on Justin.tv
I'm going to try and stream live today via justin.tv since we will likely be in a great reception area. I've embedded the stream to this blog...hopefully it works out.
Watch live video from Winnipeg, Manitoba Storm Chasers on Justin.tv
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