Once more, with feeling:
Moisture - the forecast dewpoints are up there around 20, and there's no problem with that, as the dewpoint outside today is in the upper teens (or actually 21 at my backyard weather station).
Instability - it should be there, just by virtue of the fact that the surface will be warm and moist. The forecast MLCAPE is over 1000 J/kg and there are even some hints of over 2000. Looking at the 500 mb map (below, after "shear") I see that there will be slight warming. Will that be enough to suppress storm development?
Lift - there appears to be a warm front progged somewhere over southeastern Manitoba. This will provide lots of convergence. Will it be enough?
Shear - This is a bit of a weakness, as the winds through much of the atmosphere will be aligned (save for at the warm front, where they will be backed) and not terribly strong.
So the question is whether storms will go. I just don't know if it will, but if it does it could be pretty serious. As soon as I get out of the dentist's chair I will likely be off in my car, chasing those elusive severe storms.
What do you think?
I think the potential is there, however, the location of the storms that initiate may be in the rice paddies of MB/Northern MN.
ReplyDeleteOnly other limiting factor will be cloud cover. Area of lift appears to be along the Q-S pseudo warm front. That area is aligned with the LLJ which will continue to pump up warm, moist air from the Oilulf of Mexico causing your lower Stratus/StratoCu deck which makes it difficult for the sun to poke through.
Kind of like today in the 'Peg.
I'd chase, but I'm pathetic...and you are too!
Good Luck!
And, right on cue, the SPC issues a 10% tornado risk for just south and east of here. Le sigh.
ReplyDeleteWell, I managed to reschedule my dentist appointment and a couple of us went.
ReplyDeleteToo much forcing. Shelf cloud and then nothing good. Ah well--we at least saw thunderstorms. :)