Well a ridge is building in quickly over the next 24 hours and as quick as the ridge comes in...it'll move off paving the way for a couple of rounds of severe thunderstorms for Central Alberta Thursday through Friday.
Tomorrow's action will likely be confined to the foothill regions as the ridge only moves off just a bit. The return flow at low levels associated with the ridge will be decent at around 15-20 knots out of the SSE. The flow at H50 looks somewhat diffluent over the west central part of the province which aligns well with the H85 flow around the Elbow region and points a bit South except for the fact that the flow is around 20-30 knots. In short, I'll say we have great directional shear...but speed shear is okay I guess...moisture is not bad and a trigger will likely be the vort max edging into the province associated with the upper low that'll move into AB for Friday.
Tomorrow's target for initiation will probably be the Nordegg, Rocky Mountain House, and Hinton-Edson regions with storms trying to move off of the hills in the evening. LP Supercells look to be the storm mode if they go big! Non-Zero Tor chances too!
My HobTor:Con for tomorrow would be a 2 out of 10...lol!
Now onto Friday...
Again the directional shear will be great...and the speed shear won't be bad either! Moisture will be decent with dewpt temps in the low-mid teens...trigger will again be the cooling coming in at H50 as well as a surface trough that looks to dissect the Capital by 6pm. Storms will likely fire along western edge the QE2 corridor between Airdrie and Edmonton and build in intensity as they roll eastward in the evening. Biggest threat for decent supercells will be around Camrose - Provost - Drumheller areas in the evening. For early initiation I'd play East of Drayton Valley towards the Olds area. Tornado chances will be higher compared to Thursday if storms stay isolated near the trough or any other boundary and wherever LCL's can remain relatively low in areas with deeper moisture. HobTor:Con for Friday would be a 4 out of 10.
My HobTor:Con is just a value I make from the top of my head...it essentally means nothing except for the chances 'I think' a tornado will form if a supercell develops...the May 22, 2010 day would have been a 10 out of 10 in NE South Dakota...I know it already happened...but those of us watching earlier that day knew it'd be huge if it went...and it did!
Well . . . sounds interesting. I will have to keep my eye on it . . . as i'm coming back from the hat on friday. :) Sweet. nice hobtor con haha :P
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