Tomorrow may be different. Finally, something to talk about.
Moisture: good dewpoints are already in place, in the mid-teens, but 20s are lurking in ND. They should advect north by tomorrow.
Instability: this is conditionally problematic, but with cooling aloft, should the dry slot of the upcoming system be relatively cloud-free (even for an hour) this will cease to be a problem, with 2000+ j/kg MLCAPE.
Shear: this is interesting; the deep-layer shear will be adequate but the profiles themselves may lead to weird storm modes.
Trigger: not a problem with a sub-1000 mb low coming our way, accompanied by all the requisite fronts.
Here's a prog sounding for Carman, MB, for 7 PM. Note the implied convection.
Consecutive runs of various models have been pulling the low farther and farther west; a few days ago this setup looked like it would be primarily a northwest Ontario one, and perhaps in the jungles of eastern Manitoba. Now, it's changing in favour of chasers.
Good luck and stay safe!