Well I'm currently in Winnipeg for the next few days before I head out to the Lake of the Woods for the long weekend. Fortunately it looks like mother nature may unleash a mini outbreak of severe weather confined to parts of SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba tomorrow during the late afternoon.
A weak low is forecast to develop in the afternoon and situate itself somewhere near the Moosomin-Virden area. A warm front looks to be draped from NW-SE toward the international border. Moisture looks to pool along this front with dews likely in the low 20's. Great crossover winds are forecast to phase with the highest instability which should allow for storms to rotate with ease. The show looks like it'll start in the late afternoon. (6 o'clock magic)
Limiting factors for tomorrow: well it ain't moisture...the only thing I can see is capping in the area. H75 temps aren't that high, and the H85 thermal ridge looks to move east during peak heating to allow the cap to be breached! At the H50 level... it also looks like a weak shortwave will traverse the top of the ridge and some cooling moving in may lower the heights enough to again allow for storms to develop...timing of all these features may push back development to 7pm or 8pm...but since it's summer the days are still quite long.
Anyways...I'm quite excited for tomorrow...looks like Carlyle in 2008 and Pipestone in 2007 if the warm front can develop like it's forecast to do and a storm can ride the frontal boundary...CAPES looks insane too...~2500-3500 j/kg...and if you incorporate some ET into the equation CAPES might hit 4000+ j/kg! Here's to hoping!
Dave...what do you think?
Yeah it's a potential cap bust kind of day.
ReplyDeleteI'm not so sure about it being quite like Pipestone, as the wind fields aren't going to be as strong as that, but still.
I can't pass this one up, for sure.
(And BTW the 18Z NAM really tones things down in the area; I wouldn't fret that, seeing as how a bunch of runs before that had a pretty good setup consistently.)
haha i was just about to say . . .pipestone! You wish. Haha. May be interesting ish out here too. We'll see. . . i didn't do too much of a work up. Just a little looking!!
ReplyDeleteTwo words: cap bust
ReplyDeleteHad to wait a couple more days.
ReplyDeleteAT 947 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUNSEITH...OR 26 MILES EAST
OF BOTTINEAU...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
came thru Deloraine MB etc