Yesterday we caught a pretty cool HP supercell in the Oklahoma panhandle after much rumination on the fact that the moisture wasn't all that great. The best storm, though, appeared just to our south, unchaseable because of positioning, right on the nose of the theta-e axis. D'oh!
Now onto today.
I was really hoping Thompson would have this crystal clear depiction of what was going to happen today. But no! Complicated forecast! Unfortunately I agree. I have been looking at about 4 different areas. Logistics say no to SD so let's see what else is there.
OFB pushing into OK. It seems to me that they are in the heart of the cap. VERY conditional and I do not believe the cap will break south.
Eastern KS. The earlier HRRR was breaking out nice convection out east but I do not like that any more and neither do the models. Well, most of them. The NAM still hints at stuff there. I am not a fan of that section of the ridge for initiation. Plus the remnants of the overnight MCS a making that less and less interesting.
NE CO. I like this area. The low-level upslope does hint at a good flow of moisture to the higher terrain. The 850 analysis has strong flow over wrn KS and there is a definite wave coming northeast. I actually think that storms could go farther south but at the same time, that is in the heart of the cap.
North central KS looks good too, at least in the RUC's mind with erosion of the cap. I am concerned about the exact forcing mechanism but like the wind structure of the atmosphere there and think that storms could go and go big. It is also on the northern end of the cap and the cap may be breakable. We are headed to Hays and will assess along the way determining whether to go east a bit or head back west.
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