U of M trip forecast: better late than never

So here’s what it’s looking like now. I will post my ideal locations as though we had a teleportation machine. Since Thursday is the theoretical earliest we can start chasing, I will start from then and go as far into the future as Canada Day. I will give each day and run a completely arbitrary rating on a scale of 0 to 10, 0 being horrible and 10 being the best setup ever. Keep in mind this is model land and I’m basing my judgments on believing as though the depicted scenario were exactly what was going to happen.

NAM (12Z):
Thursday – northern Montana and/or adjacent areas of AB/SK (4 – instability is kind of weak and winds are a little far back)
Friday – northeast Colorado/Nebraska panhandle (6 – instability and deep shear are good but the directional turning is only okay)

GFS (12Z):
Thursday – central Alberta (5 – instability is weak but the winds are more favourable)
Friday – northwest Nebraska/southwest South Dakota (6 – instability and deep shear are pretty good but the directional turning is lacking)
Saturday – northeast Colorado/Nebraska panhandle (6 – instability and deep shear are pretty good but the directional turning is lacking; do we sense a theme here?)
Sunday – a few areas, including western Kansas (5 for okay deep and directional shear with good instability), the Nebraska panhandle (7 with good potential juxtaposition of parameters but it may be only okay) or northern South Dakota (6 with slightly weaker winds)
Monday – southeast Alberta (6, as wind fields are better but moisture is lacking) or northern South Dakota (6 for good instability but weaker deep wind shear, although nice turning)
Tuesday – western North Dakota (8, as wind fields, both deep and directional, and instability look better)
Wednesday – western Manitoba or southwest South Dakota (9 – instability and shear look really good)
Thursday – northwest South Dakota (4 mainly for capping)
Friday – western North Dakota (8 if the cap breaks)

ECMWF (00Z) (I can’t do forecast soundings, though, so I have to guess the ratings a bit more):
Thursday – eastern Alberta (6 depending on moisture)
Friday – eastern Montana, I think (5, based on it’s unclear but looks like there’s some potential)
Saturday – southern Saskatchewan (6)
Sunday – eastern Dakotas (7)
Monday – western Kansas but probably too capped (4)

GEM-Global (12Z and 00Z):
Thursday – northern Montana or southeast Alberta (5)
Friday – southeast Saskatchewan (6) or western Kansas if it’s not capped (6)
Saturday – central South Dakota (7)
Sunday – north-central Nebraska, specifically Cherry freaking county (7)
**now changing to 00Z run**
Monday – maybe the Colorado front range, but that looks marginal (2)
Tuesday – eastern Alberta (6)
Wednesday – eastern Dakotas or the Red River Valley (7)
Thursday – southeast Alberta (8)

NAEFS (00Z):
Thursday – southeast Alberta (5)
Friday – Nebraska panhandle (6)
Saturday – western Nebraska (6)
Sunday – western North Dakota (7)
Monday – western North Dakota (6)


Wow, that was exhausting. The models are seeming to key in on a potential play on Thursday in Alberta, but then they almost all unanimously drop the potential into the states, and well into them at that. Nebraska panhandle for a couple of days, or maybe into the Dakotas. It seems that the usual suspects, moisture and midlevel winds, are the main players here. Moisture is there south but the winds aren’t. And it seems the good midlevel flow dies as soon as it hits North America. Weird.

(cross-posted at the Weather Central blog)