We started the morning knowing things would get going early in Colorado. It's a lot like Alberta in that the storms form because of the mountain-plains circulation. If there's cold air aloft and some flow, storms go early and they can go big. We were dealing with low dewpoints, however, and so we were expecting wind and hail makers.
And that's just what we got. We got a bunch of really neat structure while staying on storms for hours and hours. We were in cold air and warm, moist-ish air and dry. I took more pictures yesterday than I have in all my other chase days this year combined. On the way back to the hotel we took some lightning pictures, although most were marginal. The lightning we watched later in the van was amazing, mostly sheet, and constant. Coupled with blasting music by Rush, and it was a great day.
Today we're looking to southeast Kansas. Moisture--surface dewpoints are already in the low 70s F. Instability will be there because of the moisture, and we're looking at MLCAPEs of 3500+ J/kg. Uncapped. Lift should be good along a composite warm front/outflow boundary, enough to overcome the only modest cap characterized by 700 mb temperatures of 10C. Shear will be good. 35 knots at 500 mb from the west and easterly surface winds of 10 to 15 knots will make storms easily rotate. We'll even be in the left exit region of an 80 knot 250 mb jet.
Now the minuses will be the moisture at 850 and winds at 700. The surface moisture will be good, so that should overcome the lack higher up. As for the 700 winds, I don't know what to say or what effect it will have on storms--strictly speaking, though, the hodographs won't be too bad, especially in southeast Kansas.
I expect we'll be looking at wet classic supercells today, given the moisture. Who knows what kind of surprises we may see. It should be fun. (Especially after stopping at Hog Wild). (Maybe.)
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