Hobson lands in a few hours and then we'll be off to Fargo.
Today has been taken up with last-minute preparations. Thank goodness I made a list--otherwise I would most certainly forget something.
I got the rental vehicle at noon and spent about an hour trying to attach the laptop stand to it. I finally got it attached in a sturdy fashion. Clothes, cameras, electronics, check, check, check.
The SPC outlook and model solutions are favourable for us, although the actual target is still somewhat in question. It could be as far southwest as Dodge City, but it'll more likely be farther northeast near Salina. How much cloud sticks around for the bulk of the day will determine whether we get good storms or great ones--more heat leads to more instability, after all.
I'm like a little kid on Christmas Eve. So excited.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Closer and closer...
I'm not going to rehash things I've said over the last couple of days. All I will say is that the forecasts and reasoning have changed very little. Mesoscale details will only be able to be resolved on the day of the chase, so that's where the rest of the fun begins.
Now I have to do some last-minute preparations for the chase.
Here is another to follow us along (aside from this one):
Spotter Network--we'll likely be called Winnipeg Chasers
Now I have to do some last-minute preparations for the chase.
Here is another to follow us along (aside from this one):
Spotter Network--we'll likely be called Winnipeg Chasers
Monday, May 16, 2011
Narrowing down our target area
So now as the time of our chase draws nearer, more forecast models have our timeframe in its integration period. This provides more solutions but also more confidence in a general target area.
Today we look at the 16/00Z GFS which seems to have settled on a scenario. Whether that scenario is right, well, time will tell.
Day 1 (May 19):
Somewhere near Salina, KS looks like the place to be. Moisture will be returning, there'll be a dryline for initiation, and 500 mb winds look good--great, in fact, if you consider that the area looks to be under the left exit region of the jet (enhancing large-scale lift).
Day 2:
This is a day where we'll have to make a crucial decision: north or south. It looks a lot to me like June 17, 2010, where there were two distinct tornado areas. The delineation was the core of the jet, which I neglected to watch throughout the day, much to my chagrin.
But all that aside, I think I like the southern target because everything else looks equal except for the moisture and therefore the instability. Something south of Oklahoma City.
Day 3:
This looks like a clear Oklahoma chase. (Great. Chaser convergence.) Tulsa or thereabouts.
Day 4:
We're getting way out there in time, now, so the confidence is lower. That being said, it looks like a reload day for the atmosphere, with short-wave ridging over the southern and central plains. Instability looks crazy, though, and if a mesoscale accident can happen, who knows? I'd target southern Kansas, somewhere southeast of Wichita.
Days 5 and 6:
I'll exclude the imagery here, but they look like central plains cyclone plays, either along the warm front or the dryline. Right now the low looks to be west of Omaha on day 5 and in southern Minnesota on day 6. After that, the GFS takes a wiper blade of a cold front across North America, effectively ending our chase.
Again, this is all if the GFS verifies, which is in doubt, seeing as how last week it was showing bad conditions for us now.
Whatever happens, I'm sure we'll catch some awesome storms and meet some great people!
Today we look at the 16/00Z GFS which seems to have settled on a scenario. Whether that scenario is right, well, time will tell.
Day 1 (May 19):
Somewhere near Salina, KS looks like the place to be. Moisture will be returning, there'll be a dryline for initiation, and 500 mb winds look good--great, in fact, if you consider that the area looks to be under the left exit region of the jet (enhancing large-scale lift).
Day 2:
This is a day where we'll have to make a crucial decision: north or south. It looks a lot to me like June 17, 2010, where there were two distinct tornado areas. The delineation was the core of the jet, which I neglected to watch throughout the day, much to my chagrin.
But all that aside, I think I like the southern target because everything else looks equal except for the moisture and therefore the instability. Something south of Oklahoma City.
Day 3:
This looks like a clear Oklahoma chase. (Great. Chaser convergence.) Tulsa or thereabouts.
Day 4:
We're getting way out there in time, now, so the confidence is lower. That being said, it looks like a reload day for the atmosphere, with short-wave ridging over the southern and central plains. Instability looks crazy, though, and if a mesoscale accident can happen, who knows? I'd target southern Kansas, somewhere southeast of Wichita.
Days 5 and 6:
I'll exclude the imagery here, but they look like central plains cyclone plays, either along the warm front or the dryline. Right now the low looks to be west of Omaha on day 5 and in southern Minnesota on day 6. After that, the GFS takes a wiper blade of a cold front across North America, effectively ending our chase.
Again, this is all if the GFS verifies, which is in doubt, seeing as how last week it was showing bad conditions for us now.
Whatever happens, I'm sure we'll catch some awesome storms and meet some great people!
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Model differences
The models seem to be settling on a scenario out to 6 days now, one that's favourable for our chase. However, at this time, I must state that the huge wildcard in the mix is moisture--that is, whether or not it'll be there in the abundance we seek.
After 7 days, though, they start to diverge and in a pretty fundamental way, one that would make for vastly different outcomes of the latter part of our chase.
The difference is outlined best by these two 500 mb forecast charts, valid next Saturday evening. The first one is from the GFS and the second is from the ECMWF.
At first glance, they appear pretty similar, both having upper circulations near the coast of California and another near New York City. But in between, the difference is huge.
The GFS has a positively-tilted lead trough over north Texas and the upper midwest, followed by a sharp short-wave ridge over Arizona. On the other hand, the ECMWF has a negatively-tilted trough over the northern plains followed by weak short-wave ridging in advance of the next impulse to be ejected. The difference is that the GFS solution would mean a longer time between storms and likely less low-level moisture availability, whereas the ECMWF solution would mean more low-level moisture and a near-constant barrage of storms, perhaps with a one-day break.
Forecasters far and wide perceive that the ECMWF is the superior model to all others in the mid-range. I have no lazy way of knowing if this is accurate; however, I do know that the wishcaster in me hopes that this is the case.
After 7 days, though, they start to diverge and in a pretty fundamental way, one that would make for vastly different outcomes of the latter part of our chase.
The difference is outlined best by these two 500 mb forecast charts, valid next Saturday evening. The first one is from the GFS and the second is from the ECMWF.
At first glance, they appear pretty similar, both having upper circulations near the coast of California and another near New York City. But in between, the difference is huge.
The GFS has a positively-tilted lead trough over north Texas and the upper midwest, followed by a sharp short-wave ridge over Arizona. On the other hand, the ECMWF has a negatively-tilted trough over the northern plains followed by weak short-wave ridging in advance of the next impulse to be ejected. The difference is that the GFS solution would mean a longer time between storms and likely less low-level moisture availability, whereas the ECMWF solution would mean more low-level moisture and a near-constant barrage of storms, perhaps with a one-day break.
Forecasters far and wide perceive that the ECMWF is the superior model to all others in the mid-range. I have no lazy way of knowing if this is accurate; however, I do know that the wishcaster in me hopes that this is the case.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
4 More Days...
Well the 5/15 00Z GFS is coming in and it looks like it's going to be a busy start to our chase trip...
An omega blocking pattern is setting up over N. America and it will hold for a few days or longer with impulses ejecting out of the base of the western trough daily. Wednesday looks to be the first of a busy chase period in SW Kansas, OK panhandle which we will have to miss since I land at 9pm in Winnipeg that night. I'm not worried because moisture will still be returning into that area meaning the tornadic potential for the storms won't be that great(LP Sups with large hail). As moisture continues to advect into the region, this should result in a bigger day on Thursday for north central Kansas vc triple point (classic sups with tornadic potential). We will have to drive a long way as quick as possible to get into position for Thursday if the latest runs verify. I figure we leave Winnipeg as soon as I land and head to Fargo for 1am. Get up at 6:30am, leave by 7:30am in order to be in position by 6:30pm which should be okay. I'd prefer 4pm but hey we are coming from Winnipeg. Friday looks bigger with a dry-line play over central Kansas/Oklahoma as moisture quality continues to improve. Last day I'll talk about is Saturday which again looks like a good dryline play over central Oklahoma.
Let's hope this run verifies...regardless...it looks like an active beginning is shaping up for our Tornado Hunt that runs from May 19-28th, 2011.
Only thing I fear is massive chaser convergence as we play in KS/OK...I'm still hoping for a warm front play over North Dakota near the end of our trip which should keep convergence to a minimum. I'm actually beginning to like Canada for chasing...even though we have fewer storms. It's cool knowing you might be the only one chasing it.
An omega blocking pattern is setting up over N. America and it will hold for a few days or longer with impulses ejecting out of the base of the western trough daily. Wednesday looks to be the first of a busy chase period in SW Kansas, OK panhandle which we will have to miss since I land at 9pm in Winnipeg that night. I'm not worried because moisture will still be returning into that area meaning the tornadic potential for the storms won't be that great(LP Sups with large hail). As moisture continues to advect into the region, this should result in a bigger day on Thursday for north central Kansas vc triple point (classic sups with tornadic potential). We will have to drive a long way as quick as possible to get into position for Thursday if the latest runs verify. I figure we leave Winnipeg as soon as I land and head to Fargo for 1am. Get up at 6:30am, leave by 7:30am in order to be in position by 6:30pm which should be okay. I'd prefer 4pm but hey we are coming from Winnipeg. Friday looks bigger with a dry-line play over central Kansas/Oklahoma as moisture quality continues to improve. Last day I'll talk about is Saturday which again looks like a good dryline play over central Oklahoma.
Let's hope this run verifies...regardless...it looks like an active beginning is shaping up for our Tornado Hunt that runs from May 19-28th, 2011.
Only thing I fear is massive chaser convergence as we play in KS/OK...I'm still hoping for a warm front play over North Dakota near the end of our trip which should keep convergence to a minimum. I'm actually beginning to like Canada for chasing...even though we have fewer storms. It's cool knowing you might be the only one chasing it.
Is it really only a few days now?
It seems like we've been waiting for this time to come around for years. The drab day yesterday here in Winnipeg made storm chasing seem that much further away.
But it's almost here. A few more days, and I couldn't be happier.
So what do the imperfect models have in store? I will turn to the GFS for its "wisdom".
Day 1 (May 19):
This looks like a dryline/warm front intersection chase day. Western Kansas looks to be the place to be, although the moisture quality will be in question, seeing as how they're in the midst of a drought and the dewpoints haven't been as juicy as they normally are this time of year. There is a problem, though: we will most likely be starting off the morning in Fargo, so getting far enough south will be a challenge. Not to say that we won't try, though.
Day 2:
Another warm front and/or dryline chase, but I suspect this one will be more in the way of moisture-dependent.
Day 3:
This looks like the day, if it comes true, that we'll abandon the warm front. Reason being, a) it'll be getting farther and farther away from the good moisture, and b) the upper winds south of it are forecast to be much better. Still, though, this looks like a pretty good chase day, although the territory where the good stuff could happen isn't ideal (the Ozarks and the Ouachitas in eastern Oklahoma.)
Day 4:
Central Oklahoma. That looks better, although with this setup we'll have to deal with about 400 million other chasers. Le sigh.
Day 5:
This is as far as I'm going to go, as the models tend to go into la-la land at this point, and very often much much earlier. But nonetheless, it's a fun exercise. Oklahoma again, maybe a bit farther west.
After this, the GFS goes into a bonanza for us chasers, although at this point I'm going to give it the credit it's due (that is to say, none). But if I were a wishcaster (and some have accused me of it, and rightly so), I would hope for the 14/00Z GFS to be right.
But it's almost here. A few more days, and I couldn't be happier.
So what do the imperfect models have in store? I will turn to the GFS for its "wisdom".
Day 1 (May 19):
This looks like a dryline/warm front intersection chase day. Western Kansas looks to be the place to be, although the moisture quality will be in question, seeing as how they're in the midst of a drought and the dewpoints haven't been as juicy as they normally are this time of year. There is a problem, though: we will most likely be starting off the morning in Fargo, so getting far enough south will be a challenge. Not to say that we won't try, though.
Day 2:
Another warm front and/or dryline chase, but I suspect this one will be more in the way of moisture-dependent.
Day 3:
This looks like the day, if it comes true, that we'll abandon the warm front. Reason being, a) it'll be getting farther and farther away from the good moisture, and b) the upper winds south of it are forecast to be much better. Still, though, this looks like a pretty good chase day, although the territory where the good stuff could happen isn't ideal (the Ozarks and the Ouachitas in eastern Oklahoma.)
Day 4:
Central Oklahoma. That looks better, although with this setup we'll have to deal with about 400 million other chasers. Le sigh.
Day 5:
This is as far as I'm going to go, as the models tend to go into la-la land at this point, and very often much much earlier. But nonetheless, it's a fun exercise. Oklahoma again, maybe a bit farther west.
After this, the GFS goes into a bonanza for us chasers, although at this point I'm going to give it the credit it's due (that is to say, none). But if I were a wishcaster (and some have accused me of it, and rightly so), I would hope for the 14/00Z GFS to be right.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
9 days out
I've been monitoring the GFS for the last few days, and the swings in the solutions it comes out with every successive run are amazing. All that tells me is that the models cannot be trusted with anything this far in advance. A fact that I already knew, anyhow.
But just for fun, why not?
Here's a rundown of what the 10/00Z run of the GFS is saying we will be looking at for day 1 of our chase, May 19.
Moisture: we should be good, with an open Gulf and southeast winds all the way down south. A low is progged in northwest Kansas with an obvious dryline to its east. The dewpoint gradient isn't likely to be as slack as shown here--the GFS is notorious for a) not being moist enough, and b) smearing out gradients over too far an area. One caveat, though: that area has been under a terrible drought, and unless it rains there, a lot, between now and then, the dryline could end up being farther east.
850 moisture looks good, all advected on the nose of a 50 knot low-level jet.
CAPE looks okay, albeit not great. Again, this could be real or it could be something to do with the GFS being notoriously dry. We'll see, when the time gets closer. But still, in excess of 1500 J/kg is nothing to sniff at.
Lift should be easy to come by. A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the area, with 50 knots at 500 mb and cooling aloft.
Wind shear will, of course, be fine. With the aforementioned upper trough as well as the low-level jet, we should be in business.
So we'll see how this evolves over the next couple of days. I'm sure the model will paint a different scenario tomorrow, the next day and the next. What matters to me is what scenario is painted by Mother Nature.
But just for fun, why not?
Here's a rundown of what the 10/00Z run of the GFS is saying we will be looking at for day 1 of our chase, May 19.
Moisture: we should be good, with an open Gulf and southeast winds all the way down south. A low is progged in northwest Kansas with an obvious dryline to its east. The dewpoint gradient isn't likely to be as slack as shown here--the GFS is notorious for a) not being moist enough, and b) smearing out gradients over too far an area. One caveat, though: that area has been under a terrible drought, and unless it rains there, a lot, between now and then, the dryline could end up being farther east.
850 moisture looks good, all advected on the nose of a 50 knot low-level jet.
CAPE looks okay, albeit not great. Again, this could be real or it could be something to do with the GFS being notoriously dry. We'll see, when the time gets closer. But still, in excess of 1500 J/kg is nothing to sniff at.
Lift should be easy to come by. A short-wave trough is forecast to move through the area, with 50 knots at 500 mb and cooling aloft.
Wind shear will, of course, be fine. With the aforementioned upper trough as well as the low-level jet, we should be in business.
So we'll see how this evolves over the next couple of days. I'm sure the model will paint a different scenario tomorrow, the next day and the next. What matters to me is what scenario is painted by Mother Nature.
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