Today we look at the 16/00Z GFS which seems to have settled on a scenario. Whether that scenario is right, well, time will tell.
Day 1 (May 19):
Somewhere near Salina, KS looks like the place to be. Moisture will be returning, there'll be a dryline for initiation, and 500 mb winds look good--great, in fact, if you consider that the area looks to be under the left exit region of the jet (enhancing large-scale lift).
Day 2:
This is a day where we'll have to make a crucial decision: north or south. It looks a lot to me like June 17, 2010, where there were two distinct tornado areas. The delineation was the core of the jet, which I neglected to watch throughout the day, much to my chagrin.
But all that aside, I think I like the southern target because everything else looks equal except for the moisture and therefore the instability. Something south of Oklahoma City.
Day 3:
This looks like a clear Oklahoma chase. (Great. Chaser convergence.) Tulsa or thereabouts.
Day 4:
We're getting way out there in time, now, so the confidence is lower. That being said, it looks like a reload day for the atmosphere, with short-wave ridging over the southern and central plains. Instability looks crazy, though, and if a mesoscale accident can happen, who knows? I'd target southern Kansas, somewhere southeast of Wichita.
Days 5 and 6:
I'll exclude the imagery here, but they look like central plains cyclone plays, either along the warm front or the dryline. Right now the low looks to be west of Omaha on day 5 and in southern Minnesota on day 6. After that, the GFS takes a wiper blade of a cold front across North America, effectively ending our chase.
Again, this is all if the GFS verifies, which is in doubt, seeing as how last week it was showing bad conditions for us now.
Whatever happens, I'm sure we'll catch some awesome storms and meet some great people!
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