Well the 5/15 00Z GFS is coming in and it looks like it's going to be a busy start to our chase trip...
An omega blocking pattern is setting up over N. America and it will hold for a few days or longer with impulses ejecting out of the base of the western trough daily. Wednesday looks to be the first of a busy chase period in SW Kansas, OK panhandle which we will have to miss since I land at 9pm in Winnipeg that night. I'm not worried because moisture will still be returning into that area meaning the tornadic potential for the storms won't be that great(LP Sups with large hail). As moisture continues to advect into the region, this should result in a bigger day on Thursday for north central Kansas vc triple point (classic sups with tornadic potential). We will have to drive a long way as quick as possible to get into position for Thursday if the latest runs verify. I figure we leave Winnipeg as soon as I land and head to Fargo for 1am. Get up at 6:30am, leave by 7:30am in order to be in position by 6:30pm which should be okay. I'd prefer 4pm but hey we are coming from Winnipeg. Friday looks bigger with a dry-line play over central Kansas/Oklahoma as moisture quality continues to improve. Last day I'll talk about is Saturday which again looks like a good dryline play over central Oklahoma.
Let's hope this run verifies...regardless...it looks like an active beginning is shaping up for our Tornado Hunt that runs from May 19-28th, 2011.
Only thing I fear is massive chaser convergence as we play in KS/OK...I'm still hoping for a warm front play over North Dakota near the end of our trip which should keep convergence to a minimum. I'm actually beginning to like Canada for chasing...even though we have fewer storms. It's cool knowing you might be the only one chasing it.
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