Is it really only a few days now?

It seems like we've been waiting for this time to come around for years. The drab day yesterday here in Winnipeg made storm chasing seem that much further away.

But it's almost here. A few more days, and I couldn't be happier.

So what do the imperfect models have in store? I will turn to the GFS for its "wisdom".

Day 1 (May 19):
This looks like a dryline/warm front intersection chase day. Western Kansas looks to be the place to be, although the moisture quality will be in question, seeing as how they're in the midst of a drought and the dewpoints haven't been as juicy as they normally are this time of year. There is a problem, though: we will most likely be starting off the morning in Fargo, so getting far enough south will be a challenge. Not to say that we won't try, though.





Day 2:
Another warm front and/or dryline chase, but I suspect this one will be more in the way of moisture-dependent.





Day 3:
This looks like the day, if it comes true, that we'll abandon the warm front. Reason being, a) it'll be getting farther and farther away from the good moisture, and b) the upper winds south of it are forecast to be much better. Still, though, this looks like a pretty good chase day, although the territory where the good stuff could happen isn't ideal (the Ozarks and the Ouachitas in eastern Oklahoma.)





Day 4:
Central Oklahoma. That looks better, although with this setup we'll have to deal with about 400 million other chasers. Le sigh.





Day 5:
This is as far as I'm going to go, as the models tend to go into la-la land at this point, and very often much much earlier. But nonetheless, it's a fun exercise. Oklahoma again, maybe a bit farther west.





After this, the GFS goes into a bonanza for us chasers, although at this point I'm going to give it the credit it's due (that is to say, none). But if I were a wishcaster (and some have accused me of it, and rightly so), I would hope for the 14/00Z GFS to be right.