Day 2 forecast

Well, after looking at this morning's data (no Norman, OK sounding, thank you very much), it's still as clear as mud.

A surface low is still sitting over the panhandles and southwest Kansas, so a setup similar to yesterday's looks to be in the offing. That means a dryline southward and a triple point somewhere west of our current location of Wichita.

After a leisurely breakfast and discussion amongst us, we decided to sit tight here in Wichita and wait for storms to go to our west. Morning satellite imagery shows clearing starting to occur after the late night/early morning MCS, and west of Wichita should get full sun for at least a couple of hours today.



Wxdog pointed out to me that yesterday's setup wasn't completely ideal, as the storm motion was doomed to take storms away from the instability quickly, and any storm therefore had a low chance of producing a tornado. The reason I mention this is because today's setup is pretty similar. But we'll take what we can get.

The shear vectors in Texas are a little more orthogonal to the dryline (a very little more orthogonal) so those storms may have a bigger chance of being better. Tomorrow's play looks to be around Kansas City, though, and we want to be in place for that one, so rather than go for a long drive for something that was going to happen here anyhow, we'll sit and take that gamble.

As a result of all that, we are unlikely to be on spotternetwork.org until quite a bit later today. If you're looking for us, we're likely to be west of Wichita. The town that was named casually was Pratt, KS.

Day 1 recap: long drive, hazy HP beast, awesome BBQ

We started out the morning ridiculously early, having had a whole 3 hours' sleep. Fargo was the starting point. We drove and drove and drove, and by the time the tornado watch went out for our target area, we were about 2 hours' drive away from it.

We got into Kansas, got as far south as Salina and turned west on I-70 toward Ellsworth. There was the intersection of the dryline and the warm front--the much-ballyhooed triple point. Vigourous convection was just starting to go there, and we were just in time.

If only we could see it.

Coming from the north and east as we were, we were on the cold side of the warm front. That meant haze and a steadily-lowering cloud deck. Visibility wasn't great, but seeing storms in the distance just wasn't happening.

We got to just northwest of Ellsworth when the storm we were targeting got tornado warned. Haha, business at last.

The storm, at least what we could see of it, was showing some not bad rotation (both visually and on RADAR, and let me just say that this area of Kansas has horrible RADAR coverage, such that the lowest beam from the closest unit is about 10,000 feet in the air). But then it started to morph into this beast that had its rotation in the middle of the precipitation--a high-precipitation (HP) supercell. These storms are known for a) copious amounts of rain, b) low contrast and c) very seldom putting out visible tornadoes.

We went along the road with it for about an hour, but it was painfully obvious that the storm was going to stay an HP beast. Furthermore, we were no longer convinced that it was riding the warm front, and therefore ingesting elevated air parcels, so its chances of putting out a tornado were next to zilch. We bailed on that storm and checked out our options.

When we saw we had no realistic storm intercept options, we decided that Salina was nearby, it was dinner time, and one of our favourite BBQ places was there.

We had a wholly satisfying and leisurely dinner (hint: everything there is good!), went back out to the truck, only to open up the RADAR and find that a storm just to our northwest, as in maybe 15 miles, was showing signs of being interesting. Food in our bellies and energy renewed, we set off for that storm.

Well, this not being our day, it decided to become what the previous storm was: an elevated HP bomb. So we finally bailed and are now sitting in Wichita, Kansas, about to hit the hay, but also hoping for some overnight thunder and lightning to round out the night.

Tomorrow (well, now today) looks very tricky: the dryline will once again set up from here down to Texas, and pretty much everything (shear, moisture, CAPE, instability) looks the same right on down the line. The best we can do, then, is wait for any overnight convection and see where the boundaries sit, and play on them.

Ah, chasing: an exhilarating and frustrating endeavour.

Day 1 - wow

So the 12Z information is coming in. I'm having a moment here.

250 mb - a good jet streak is evident at Albuquerque, NM. 90 knots is what it appears to be. That will provide plenty of ventilation for storms that go.


500 mb - 80 knots coming in there. And the approaching temperature is -14, as compared to -10 at Dodge City.


700 mb - 35 knots, but on this one the big story is the crazy cooling coming in--from +8 to -1.


850 mb - soundings all over the place show deep, substantial moisture.


Surface - there's a low in southwest Kansas with a warm front northeast from it and a dryline to the south. Where the two meet is called the triple point, and that's an area of tremendous convergence and shear. That's where we're going.

SPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the area, with a hatched area (10% chance of EF2-EF5) centred on the triple point. I suspect that, later today, they will upgrade to a moderate risk. In addition to tornadoes, possibly strong, today, the tremendous cooling and thus destabilization coming in tell me that there's a good chance of very large hail. Stay away from it.

Follow us along on Spotter network. We're called Winnipeg chasers.

I'm quietly optimistic about today.

And we are rolling...tor potential is high today.

Well we left Fargo at 6am and are currently near the South Dakota border...

We aim to be at our target somewhere near Russell, Kansas by 5pm local. Latest guidance suggests the triple point will reside in this area with pooling moisture occurring in this zone. Dewpoints are already in the low teens in Srn Kansas as I type so moisture will not be a concern like last week. My favorite part is the orientation of the LLJ from the SSE later on this afternoon. As you climb from H7 to H5...the winds veer nicely. Shear is there...moisture...well you know...instability...ya...and forcing near the triple point should allow for storms to go boom.

We are very excited...a little tired after only 3 1/2 hours of sleep...but hey...that's what it's all about...the only thing we need now is for initiation to hold off until we get there...let the atmosphere cook for a little bit.

T minus a few hours

Hobson lands in a few hours and then we'll be off to Fargo.

Today has been taken up with last-minute preparations. Thank goodness I made a list--otherwise I would most certainly forget something.

I got the rental vehicle at noon and spent about an hour trying to attach the laptop stand to it. I finally got it attached in a sturdy fashion. Clothes, cameras, electronics, check, check, check.

The SPC outlook and model solutions are favourable for us, although the actual target is still somewhat in question. It could be as far southwest as Dodge City, but it'll more likely be farther northeast near Salina. How much cloud sticks around for the bulk of the day will determine whether we get good storms or great ones--more heat leads to more instability, after all.

I'm like a little kid on Christmas Eve. So excited.

Closer and closer...

I'm not going to rehash things I've said over the last couple of days. All I will say is that the forecasts and reasoning have changed very little. Mesoscale details will only be able to be resolved on the day of the chase, so that's where the rest of the fun begins.

Now I have to do some last-minute preparations for the chase.

Here is another to follow us along (aside from this one):

Spotter Network--we'll likely be called Winnipeg Chasers

Narrowing down our target area

So now as the time of our chase draws nearer, more forecast models have our timeframe in its integration period. This provides more solutions but also more confidence in a general target area.

Today we look at the 16/00Z GFS which seems to have settled on a scenario. Whether that scenario is right, well, time will tell.

Day 1 (May 19):

Somewhere near Salina, KS looks like the place to be. Moisture will be returning, there'll be a dryline for initiation, and 500 mb winds look good--great, in fact, if you consider that the area looks to be under the left exit region of the jet (enhancing large-scale lift).






Day 2:
This is a day where we'll have to make a crucial decision: north or south. It looks a lot to me like June 17, 2010, where there were two distinct tornado areas. The delineation was the core of the jet, which I neglected to watch throughout the day, much to my chagrin.

But all that aside, I think I like the southern target because everything else looks equal except for the moisture and therefore the instability. Something south of Oklahoma City.






Day 3:
This looks like a clear Oklahoma chase. (Great. Chaser convergence.) Tulsa or thereabouts.






Day 4:
We're getting way out there in time, now, so the confidence is lower. That being said, it looks like a reload day for the atmosphere, with short-wave ridging over the southern and central plains. Instability looks crazy, though, and if a mesoscale accident can happen, who knows? I'd target southern Kansas, somewhere southeast of Wichita.






Days 5 and 6:
I'll exclude the imagery here, but they look like central plains cyclone plays, either along the warm front or the dryline. Right now the low looks to be west of Omaha on day 5 and in southern Minnesota on day 6. After that, the GFS takes a wiper blade of a cold front across North America, effectively ending our chase.

Again, this is all if the GFS verifies, which is in doubt, seeing as how last week it was showing bad conditions for us now.

Whatever happens, I'm sure we'll catch some awesome storms and meet some great people!