250 mb - a good jet streak is evident at Albuquerque, NM. 90 knots is what it appears to be. That will provide plenty of ventilation for storms that go.
500 mb - 80 knots coming in there. And the approaching temperature is -14, as compared to -10 at Dodge City.
700 mb - 35 knots, but on this one the big story is the crazy cooling coming in--from +8 to -1.
850 mb - soundings all over the place show deep, substantial moisture.
Surface - there's a low in southwest Kansas with a warm front northeast from it and a dryline to the south. Where the two meet is called the triple point, and that's an area of tremendous convergence and shear. That's where we're going.
SPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the area, with a hatched area (10% chance of EF2-EF5) centred on the triple point. I suspect that, later today, they will upgrade to a moderate risk. In addition to tornadoes, possibly strong, today, the tremendous cooling and thus destabilization coming in tell me that there's a good chance of very large hail. Stay away from it.
Follow us along on Spotter network. We're called Winnipeg chasers.
I'm quietly optimistic about today.
How can you not be optimistic about this setup!? Stay safe today and I hope day 1 turns out amazing for you guys. I will be watching this day unfold...
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