Friday, June 4, 2010

Review of model forecasts vs. where storms were most severe

While I have a bit of time, I will wrap up talking about the futility of where storms will be, based on (especially extended) model output. I will write a date, the locations in the various forecasts and the actual location in parentheses. This should be fun.

May 29: Brandon, MB; Minot, ND; Dickinson, ND; Scottsbluff, NE; Ogallala, NE; Glendive, MT; Chamberlain, SD; Ogallala, NE (Mission, SD)

May 30: Wall, SD; Omaha, NE; Limon, CO; Salina, KS; nowhere; Lusk, WY (Enid, OK)

May 31: Beatrice, NE; Topeka, KS; nowhere; Oklahoma City, OK; Broadus, MT; Garden City, KS; Brush, CO (Campo, CO) (note that this day, a beautiful tornado day, had a few forecasts saying "nowhere")

June 1: Hebron, NE; Lusk, WY; Yuma, CO; Lusk, WY; NE/KS; Ogallala, NE (Omaha, NE)

Wow, what sucky forecasts. Is there any wonder I don't trust forecast models very much? Yes I know I use them, and they're usually pretty good in the 24 hour range, but aside from that--no way!

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