Thursday, May 17, 2012

Chase forecast, May 17 evening version

Sorry, folks, no imagery today. Go look it up for yourself, if you're so inclined. So it appears I may lose the bet I made with Hobson yesterday, and that's just fine. If that happens, it means our chase will have better moisture than has been in the region recently. If storms do go, though, they'll likely be organized, possibly supercells, albeit high-based. I suppose going chasing to work out the kinks will be beneficial. Or perhaps I'm just trying to make myself feel better because I can't go. Saturday looks pretty good, although still somewhat lacking in terms of moisture. But a surface low west of Omaha coupled with the approach of a compact short-wave trough will likely lead to some rather good storms in the Omaha region. Sunday has some storm potential, but I don't know how realistic it is to chase them--they will likely be in the Texas panhandle. The drive from Omaha to Amarillo is on the order of 11 hours. Yeah. Monday is when the return flow really starts to get going. The Gulf is forecast to open up. Finally. Nebraska or Colorado for a northwest flow setup. Tuesday looks like the day before the day in Nebraska. Wednesday--this is still looking like a big day. Back to eastern Nebraska, at least with this run. Thursday looks uncertain, but perhaps Iowa will work out. A few more days of chasing could occur, although I don't trust the models much at this time in the future. That being said, the central plains could see some action in a week and a half.

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