Hi Dave,
In short...somewhere just SE of Fargo, North Dakota (Fergus Falls, MN) looks amazicus for tornadic supercells on Thursday if you believe the 12z NAM run. You know the drill...Moisture, Instability, Shear, and a Trigger will reside around that area come Thursday afternoon. Capping looks to NOT be an issue with the cooling coming in...Vorticity looks amazing too...but anyways the forcing along the sharp surface trough should get things going nicely for you. Make sure you take lots of pictures.
Good luck...
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Well my area has shifted further North to reside somewhere along the international border if sun can break through the clouds and heat the surface. Tomorrow looks like it could be a good tornado day along the 49th parallel. Winnipeg will likely be spared from the tornado threat but a damaging wind/large hail threat will likely exist during the evening hours.
ReplyDeleteI wish I was there for this. I'd be targeting somewhere near Drayton, ND tomorrow and maybe drifting North into Canada if storms fired along the front...whatever happens I can guarantee that there will be some serious flooding.
stay safe...
Thinking about this one, too. This is somewhat similar to the Brunkild, MB tornado outbreak day 10 yrs ago. However, Thursday's system is stronger and this forcing may overwhelm the supercell potential. I'm prepared to do a MB side of the border chase if all of the ingredients come together. The HIV (hail intercept vehicle) is ready to go! OK, I may even bring along my passport.
ReplyDeleteThe SPC has gone moderate risk for today's set up...but I'm not a real fan of the shear profiles in the moderate risk hatched tornado zone. That area actually looks prime for storms that quickly merge into a string of pearls with the odd embedded supercell and bowing segment. I actually like the area N and E of Grand Forks into Southern Manitoba for tornadoes...
ReplyDeleteThe real limiting factor in my favored area is the cloud cover...but if the dry slot can work itself into Manitoba today by 2-3pm, then watch out.
For initiation on a Canadian Chase I'd probably sit myself in Gretna or Altona and hope things clear allowing for the surface to heat up. Speed and Directional Shear is amazing near the Int'l Border...like I mean amazing. Copius amounts of moisture tied with great instability (as progged by latest RUC run) show storms rapidly developing in this area by 4-7pm.
Looks like tornado potential will be from a Gretna - Letellier - Vita line if we can lose the clouds...
If we can't lose the clouds then I'd drift south into North Dakota to find the clearing...
Ahh, I wish I was there.
Pat if that's you...good luck today (HIV) hahaha...that's awesome!
I understand your reasoning, Justin, but I actually like parts of the SPC 10% risk area, especially Watertown and east. 16Z surface analysis showed a surface low near Mobridge, SD, a convergent line (also seen on visible satellite imagery) extending north to south and a field of cumuli to the east of it. The midlevel jet (per WV) seems to be poking toward Omaha or just north, so any area to the north of that will be in the left exit of the jet. And with the surface low in SD and the approach of falling heights aloft, the surface and near-surface winds should back in response.
ReplyDeleteDews are into the upper 60s and low 70s. No problem there.
We will have lunch in Sioux Falls and look a bit north, I think. Brookings, Watertown, something like that.
I don't know Dave...I'm hating on SD right now...winds will veer quickly there and be more or less unidirectional come supper time.
ReplyDeleteI think people will be suckered in by the Moderate Risk area today...I'd play NE ND for sure...today is a dynamic play more then a thermodynamic day and NE ND has it.
We will see!!!
Don't get me wrong, I'm not hating on ND. In fact, I like it better, for sure, but with storm motions at 40 to 50 knots, I think it's a bad choice. Storms will fire and they will be tornadic, I'm sure. But essentially you'd have one shot. The south option offers much more in the way of flexibility in case you don't get it right the first time. Yes, the winds will veer, but closer to the surface low, farther north, I think it won't be as much of a problem.
ReplyDelete