I suppose an entire Masters thesis could be written on this subject, but here are a few quick thoughts of mine about the subject.
There are many reasons that go into deciding on a chase target and deciding which storm to attack and whether to abandon a storm if it's not looking well.
First off, you have the most obvious thing: ingredients. I would like to say that ingredients always make up the main reason for chasing where one does, but that would be somewhat disingenuous.
A corollary to that is that the model output is always there, always being looked at. Different models have different parameterizations, initial and boundary conditions. And remember: the models are always wrong.
Second, you have to consider the region of interest, whether the road network will allow for chasing. Storm speed has to be taken into account as well as the road network.
Yahoos have become a problem in recent years, with everyone and their dog chasing, moreso in the southern plains. They can sometimes make the roadways dangerous, pulling over at inopportune times and walking out onto the road without even looking.
Ego, sadly, plays a part. You make a forecast and you want to be right. All the time. Admitting your forecast didn't work out is something that is very difficult to do. I have learned over the years that I will make bad forecasts. I have to get up, brush myself off and get on with it. Some days are more difficult than others.
Envy is a secondary part of ego. With the advent of all the different storm chasing websites, anyone can see who's chasing and who's been catching this or that. So sometimes it's inevitable that you see what others are catching and you beat yourself up because you didn't, no matter what the reason.
Fatigue is more understandable. If you've been going and going, you just may not feel like doing that extra 4 hours' drive to get to a more certain but more distant target.
Expectations get me a lot. Every storm chasing day you start with what you think is going to happen and if that doesn't, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Never good.
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Good analysis of the chaser's mind. All of it very true (i guess i wouldn't know too much cause i've never been to the states chasing . . . however i can imagine) Envy seems to be the only thing that gets me. Say for that campo tornado? haha. To be able to say " i made the best choice based on all the circumstances" and able to move on is a good trait to have and one that seems necessary to be a forecaster!
ReplyDeleteOn that note, how has the chase gone? Did you see any of those nado's yesterday?
...and, to keep one sane, remember that 'there will always be more storms'. I know, blah, blah, blah, Pat.
ReplyDeleteYou know, Pat, I actually agree with you. It took me a while to come around to your perspective but storm structure, for me, is what it's all about. And we saw some great structure on this trip.
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