Well...the 12z NAM/GFS models are still showing an area near the border city of Lloydminster that is forecast to be absolutely primed for tornadic supercells tomorrow late afternoon into the early evening. Great deep layer shear (55kts) tied with high 0-1km SRH's (200 m2/s2) look to lie along a warm front lifting NE from the Elbow/Foothills region of Alberta. At first it looked like a cold front was going to trigger the storms...but now it looks like a surface low will develop and be the main culprit in igniting storms in the threat area.
I'd label the Lloydminster and Coronation regions as great candidates for tornado producing storms tomorrow if again these models pan out. I'd say Moderate Risk for tomorrow based on the latest model data.
Dave says moisture may not make it...I beg to differ since dewpoints are already up in Western SK...the southeasterly low level jet increases this evening into tomorrow allowing for more moisture to be pumped into the region. Let the moisture train roll in!
Take note people...it's gonna happen!
I'd label the Lloydminster and Coronation regions as great candidates for tornado producing storms tomorrow if again these models pan out. I'd say Moderate Risk for tomorrow based on the latest model data.
Dave says moisture may not make it...I beg to differ since dewpoints are already up in Western SK...the southeasterly low level jet increases this evening into tomorrow allowing for more moisture to be pumped into the region. Let the moisture train roll in!
Take note people...it's gonna happen!
good god . . . i'd love to go chase this set up. A mere 4 hour drive away. Definately.
ReplyDeleteIf I didn't work tuesday night.
It certainly will be an interesting beginning to that night shift though.
Based on a so so analysis. I'd probably go somewhere around Unity or Cutknife, SK. West of North Battleford.