In 3 words: too much forcing.
There were a lot of storms out there today and perhaps one produced, but finding that needle in the haystack would have been nigh on impossible.
I was nowcasting for him and I knew it was trouble when storms went off at about 2 PM MDT. A brief tornado was reported in the post-frontal air near Calgary. (I'll believe it if I see pictures more convincing than those currently on TWN's site. What I see there is a scud bomb. Nothing more.) Anyhow, storms went all over the freaking place, and because the upper flow lagged the surface forcing they were all multicell garbage. Justin was in the best area thermodynamically but the storms just couldn't lay down and stop competing with one another.
Tomorrow is a chase day that a few of us are going to take in. The current target looks to be Fargo to Grand Forks.
Moisture should be pooling in the RRV with surface dews approaching 20°C. This won't be a shallow moisture pool either, as good 850 mb winds will advect in moisture from the south.
Instability, as a result, should be fine. MLCAPEs 1500 to 2000 J/kg look reasonable.
Shear won't be a problem like it was today. At 500 mb 40 knots will be there at least. As for turning profiles we'll be good there, as the 850 mb winds look to be around 30 knots.
Lift will also likely be not a problem, be it with a pre-frontal trough or with one of the fronts.
So here's a forecast sounding for around Fargo at 00Z tomorrow. Would you go? I would. Will. Whatever.
I would go...if I could.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about S MB for tomorrow? I'm concerned about the lack of CAPE. However, I really like the shear profile in SE MB.