Too bad, as these can be pretty good: for instance, Gretna 2003.
Okay, so let's look at the 08/00Z NAM run valid 11/00Z.
Moisture: well, as I write this we're in a pretty stagnant airmass with a northwest flow and still our dewpoint is a solid 14 degrees. So this time of year, one day worth of advection and unmitigated evapotranspiration can get dewpoints up into the low 20s. And this is what's forecast.
Instability, therefore, shouldn't be a problem. And the NAM is forecasting really healthy MLCAPEs in the area, around 2000 J/kg.
Shear isn't a problem. In fact, shear looks wicked:
Lift? Well, we won't really know till then. Models are notoriously bad at this time range anyhow, especially with subtle lifting features. But for what it's worth, the NAM paints this as lagging and therefore being a negative in the mix.
And because of this, the forecast RADAR image looks dry in the MB/ND/MN border region.
So we add this all together and we get a prog sounding and a prog hodograph that look like this:
Quite impressive, eh? I will definitely be chasing Saturday--heck, a local chase like this is a must-see.
Saturday does indeed look impressive...but...ridging at 850mb might keep things focused more into the Interlake...like North of Hecla come prime initiation time in the late afternoon. I foresee discrete supercells early further North transitioning into a wiper-blade NE-SW oriented squall-line that moves through Winnipeg in the late evening...around sunset with an amazing shelf cloud! Let's say with winds ~100km/hr +/- 15km/hr
ReplyDeleteWell the 12z model has flopped for Saturday showing pretty much nothing. They push the front through way to early which seems odd to me...hopefully the next few runs will push the front through at a decent time so local Manitoba chasers can have a decent shot at seeing something nice on Saturday
ReplyDeleteAny update on what tomorrow looks like for us?
ReplyDelete