Friday, April 23, 2010

3 PM CDT

As of 3 PM CDT there's a pretty good cumulus field through most of Nebraska and the northeast corner of Kansas.

I still see our target area as prime. Reasons? NWS put up an 18Z sounding from North Platte, NE (KLBF):
And it shows pretty good instability but the winds are a little goofy--that is, all from the southeast or thereabouts. So this is likely good for those who don't want long-lived tornadoes.

For those of us freaks, we don't mind those winds up to, oh, let's say 850 mb. But above that we want the winds to become more and more westerly.

As we see from the water vapour satellite image:
The midlevel flow will become more westerly the farther east you go. Add in the fact that surface dewpoints are also higher to the east, in the low 60s, then you have the better mix of ingredients.

So right now I would actually hang out in Falls City and watch how things develop. In Falls City you've got the leading edge of the better moisture and the wind profile is more favourable.

4 comments:

  1. There's still a CAP as of 4:30pm CDT...uh oh!!!

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  2. Yeah I know.
    Looks like there are falling heights moving in from the west though, per WV imagery. Let's hope.
    There are a *lot* of chasers in the area. I hope, for their sake, today's not a bust.

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  3. Hmmmm, just before 6 PM. Now the struggle will be to see if initiation occurs before sunset.

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  4. Looks like things are starting around Omaha. Imminent initiation?

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