Well, I've looked at morning analyses and the latest RUC data. I stared at the visible satellite for a bit as well as the water vapor. Based on all of this, I've decided to virtually drive to Tecumseh, Nebraska and wait for initiation. The RUC might be moving the low too fast compared to reality which means everything might trigger a bit further west. I might drift West to Beatrice, Nebraska...but not yet!
From what I've seen it looks like the Low didn't deepen the way I wanted it too. This expands the wind field which in my eyes makes it less favourable for major league tornadoes. I mean there were will be tornadoes...but the backing winds occur over a large area which one would think may be great...but I think that the environment is sharing the winds too much. At upper levels, 700mb, 500mb, and even 250mb, show similar wind directions with height although the speeds increase. Tilting storms yes...strong rotating storms...I don't know. The only saving grace is the SE winds at the surface...will that be enough? Who knows.
Also, Capping appears to not be an issue at all today which is also bad...I'll explain in a bit...similar to what Dave has said.
Moisture...well ha...that's not a problem at all...
So in a nutshell...big nutshell...
I think yesterday had better potential for tornadoes due to the better wind fields in our forecast area. Today I think that storms might all go up at once and precipitate on each other's inflow. This means that the southern most storm will be favoured, but as you head south...the winds become less favourable. Rain needs to evacuate the inflow/updraft region in order for the storm to maximize it's growth potential (severity), and I don't know if that'll happen.
The Pipestone and Aurora set-ups had a deeper low and better direction and speed changes with height...
I'm not writing today off...it just looks like if tornadoes form...they'll quickly become rain wrapped and impossible to see. Wedge tornadoes appear likely today...hopefully chasers can see them for a bit...because this can be dangerous. I've chased in Northern Missouri and the roads curve and dip quite a bit...let's just say the roads aren't exactly aligned on a grid N,E,S and W. This can be dangerous because a chaser might be paralleling a tornado when suddenly the road he/she is on turns into the the area of rotation.
Warm Front = possible gamble...there is still a dryline around so that might be the better play...
I'd look for the triple point and play around there...
Anyways, I've said what I wanted. The MDT risk area for tornadoes is better today in terms of potential, but who wants to chase in the Southern Bayous?
Forecast Convective Initation...2:30pm CDT...tornadoes on ground by 4:15pm CDT...that's my stab!
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Tecumseh, NE? That sounds pretty good. I thought this was supposed to be a debate. :P
ReplyDeleteSeriously, though, I wouldn't write off the depth of the low yet. The 60 knot 500 mb jet should induce pressure falls at the surface, and rapid deepening of the cyclone should ensue. Enter stronger winds and more southeasterly, and you should be good.
As well, since the forcing mechanism should be NW-SE and the shear oriented almost orthogonal to it, the rain polluting the updrafts could be delayed, giving better picturesque tornado chances.
FYI - CoD agree with our location, in a general sense. Let's keep our fingers crossed that a) tornadoes occur and b) they don't hit anything.
ReplyDeletehere's to hoping for a amazing tornado day...cheers!
ReplyDeleteThe winds are more easterly now at the surface...I'm becoming more optimistic...thanks for showing me the light Dave!