This is the SPC's look at it today.
Personally I like the south end of this risk, around Wichita. The surface pressure and wind forecast shows somewhat veered winds at the surface the farther north and east you go. As well, the forcing farther north will be stronger, so storms could blow up all over the place--bad for chasing.
As for twisty things down low, well, the moisture looks to be not that great, not even in Kansas and Oklahoma, so I'd be more thinking about hunting picturesque supercells.
Now how about Friday. Oh boy, Friday. In short, all the ingredients look to be there south of the Dallas Metroplex. And this time, the proximity to the Gulf means that the dewpoints progged (near 70°F) are much more likely to occur in real life.
Saturday looks rather similar to Friday in terms of both region and convective mode. Here's a prog sounding for Palestine, TX for 21Z on Saturday. I would like to be there...
Regarding that Palestine, TX tephi...I don't like that saturated layer between 850mb and 750mb...to me that looks like a decent cloud deck if the model verifies.
ReplyDeleteFriday looks good in SE Iowa for twisty things...more specifically somewhere SE of Des Moines!
I'll write about my ideas for Friday tomorrow. But in short, I like the speed and direction changes with height as well as the moisture plus the vort max rolling through..looks like it'll be cloudy early in the day...but clearing comes in a few hours before convective initiation. The CAP doesn't look like an issue either...hahahaha...you love that word don't you Dave! I mean the CINH doesn't look like it'll be an issue! Is that better princess?