I will be the first to admit that, although I do my own forecasts when it comes to chasing and following severe weather, I also check what the SPC is thinking. I mean come on, they're the best in the world at what they do and it would be folly of me to ignore their opinion, usually to check if I've missed anything.
So it made me a little surprised to see the hatched risk across Kansas. The wording, though, does make it clear that they're not that concerned about tornadoes, which is very much in line with my thinking, as the really good moisture isn't likely to be in place.
I looked at the prog sounding for the location, though, and I suppose I see more what they're looking at:
Almost 3000 J/kg of CAPE and over 50 knots of deep shear. That's pretty impressive, and with the 20 knots of 0-1 km shear, if there were moisture in place, tornadoes certainly would be a concern.
The orientation of the shear is such that the storms will likely move rather quickly, though, so I hope any people chasing out there take that into account.
Happy chasing!
No comments:
Post a Comment