Based on the 00z NAM models, it looks like tomorrow might be the first real tornado outbreak in quite some time...3 years perhaps?
The upper flow is aligning itself in such away that several LEWP (Line Echo Wave Patterns) with embedded supercells will likely develop from Central Kentucky, SW to Louisiana.
Moisture is abundant, so is the forcing, capping will not be an issue since storms are currently ongoing and will likely go through the night, and instability will be quite high with any bit of sunlight to further increase the instability.
Storms will be born rotating. I predict 30+ tornadoes tomorrow. Bold statement yes...but I'd rather be an alarmist. In that area of the USA you have plenty of terrain to focus areas of low level rotation. Now combine these areas with great thermodynamics and dynamics...well then you have outbreak potential. SPC might upgrade to a high risk with PDS watches likely being issued sometime during the day on Saturday.
The size of the potential area affected is what scares me along with the strength and orientation of the Low Level Jet. Storms will be long lived and tornadoes will probably be long-tracked.
I'd be looking for a warm front tomorrow in my morning analysis and I'd likely hover around there. If I had to choose a spot to start off the day, I'd probably start in SW Tennessee...more specifically Memphis.
We also can't forget that the superspeedway in Talladega, Alabama (Northeast) is hosting a major NASCAR race this weekend and that area is under the gun for tornadic weather tomorrow.
Lots of trees and lots of trailer parks are also located in this area. Fatalities will probably occur because people down in that area don't seem so tornado aware as the people are in the Central/Southern Plains. They better keep their eyes on the sky tomorrow.
What do you think about tomorrow Davicus?
I've been monitoring the latest surface obs as well as the latest RUC fields and today is going to be huge.
ReplyDeleteSPC has officially pulled the trigger and issued a Rare High Risk...this is epic.
The wind fields are absolutely amazing. SBCapes are already 2000+ J/Kg with a weakening CAP as I type (7am CDT). And moisture is well let's say abundant.
Tornadoes will likely occur very early today and continue all day into the overnight again into tomorrow.
The warm front play or forget that...anywhere in the warm sector will be under the gun for MAJOR LEAGUE LONG TRACKED TORNADOES.
Soak it up readers...this event does not happen often.
They better cancel the NASCAR race in Talledega...just for the threat of lightning nevermind tornadoes or large hail.
My prediction of 30 tornadoes might be underdone...time will tell!
It's Game Time!!!
Well I'll comment both before and after looking at stuff. Yesterday I was completely focused on yesterday and between that, picking up a friend from the airport and the Canucks' game, I didn't have time to look into it in depth.
ReplyDeleteFrom yesterday's model runs and a cursory look at the 12Z upper charts, today could be good. However, I get a little leery of high risks. I have actually chased one high risk and last year I virtually chased a bunch of high risks, and for the most part they were overdone. Usually because of too much forcing, storms blew up everywhere and polluted one another.
Of course, the SPC doesn't issue a high risk (and now a PDS tornado watch) for nothing.
So now I'll go get myself a double double, dig into the information and see what I can come up with. But my prediction: there will be no more than 2 long-lived and violent tornadoes. 30 may well happen, the less-violent variety, but the more violent kind, I dunno.
I shouldn't admit this but I will: the upgrade to high risk was done by Roger Edwards, whom I consider to be one of the best in the world. So I will lean the other way again, as it's only the second time in 17 years he's done so, so when he does so, he means it.
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