Severe weather season really begins

So a couple of days ago there was a somewhat unexpected tornado just outside Amarillo, TX. The thermodynamics were marginal and the shear wasn't really there, either. Well, at least so far as we were able to ascertain, but obviously things came together just right at least on that storm.

Anyhow, this led to this watch being issued yesterday because both thermodynamics and dynamics were better. But it didn't pan out. Hmm.

Anyhow, onto today. Today is looking pretty good. I did an analysis by hand (remember those?) and the 500 mb wind makes me think that today could be a sleeper. Better than tomorrow, which BTW looks really good. At least better in terms of chase-able storms.

My pros today: morning convection has dropped some moisture in the area, a dryline is setting up, and winds and cooling aloft should be in the right place at prime time. Cons: the moisture isn't huge--dewpoints are in the 15 to 17 degree range.

My target is Amarillo, TX right now. I like the moisture to the southeast better but the upper winds to the northwest better. And besides, I'm sure there'd be good BBQ to nosh on while waiting. And then as the day progresses and the dryline mixes eastward, I like drifting toward Childress. I figure tornadoes are a good possibility and if not, just a picturesque dryline storm today would be worth it.

Now onto tomorrow.

I have my suspicions tomorrow could be a good day stormwise with a gigantic asterisk next to it. See, the forcing for this event is so good, so strong, that I suspect there could be a regenerating MCS all day. That would mean outflow boundaries galore, convectively overturned air all over the place and not a single area to focus on. Unlike today, where there will likely be a string of pearls along the dryline and you could essentially choose your storm, tomorrow will likely see a convergence of chasers all around the warm front, and I agree with Justin: Falls City, NE or just north thereof.

(Full disclosure: while I was writing this I got a text from Justin telling me to get on with it; then I necessarily got distracted because something more pressing came up, and Justin told me he had already blogged about it. Keener.)

Low-level shear looks better tomorrow than today, at least on the forecast soundings, but I just can't discount that Texas panhandle dryline magic.

Incidentally, the College of DuPage is embarking on their trip this evening. It therefore looks like they can make it to their destination (wherever that may be) in time.