Day 6 forecast: outbreak?

If there's no other day you can watch, watch tomorrow.

I forecast that Tuesday, May 24, 2011 will be a big day for severe weather and likely tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma.

This time I will go with the full run-up.

Moisture - surface dewpoints in the low 70s F (20C+), and 850 dewpoints 15C and higher.


Instability - SBCAPEs and MLCAPEs over 3000 J/kg.


Shear - 0-6 km shear should be 50 knots or higher.



Trigger - Dryline. Weak cap. Need I say more?

We will be targeting Wichita first, then likely refine to points west for initiation, then move east with the storms. As the afternoon and evening wear on, the low-level jet will really get going, making for tremendous low-level shear.

Cons that I can think of include a slight lack of wind at 250 mb, which might not allow for updraft evacuation as efficient as I would like; this would lead to more HP supercells rather than classic.

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I must be missing something, but I can't think of it right now. Here are a couple of forecast soundings for the area.


We will have to be careful tomorrow, as storms will be more dangerous than just about anything I've ever been on. Follow along if you can.