Forecast for May 30

Memorial Day. It's last year on this day that we caught a beauty.

This year looks like an okay setup for supercells, although tornadoes may be a little more elusive than last year.

Here's the rundown.

Moisture: copious. Not a concern, with surface dews around 20C likely to pool and moisture plentiful and deep.


Instability: plentiful. MLCAPEs are likely to be above 2000 J/kg all over the place.



Lift: should be good, with a surface low and fronts galore.

Shear: I have left this one to last, as it's the most telling. The shear is mostly linear, leading to a) linear (i.e. non-discrete) storms, and b) fast-moving storms. This could be a problem.

All that being said, if I could chase, I would begin by targeting Fargo, ND (assuming the NAM is right and actually, the GEM-REG is quite a bit farther north with this system) and going from there.