Arkansas this evening

I just got a Facebook message talking about how Arkansas looks insane. And it's true.

Ish.

Here is a look at the reflectivity of the storm CoD is currently on.


Reflectivity-wise, it reminds me a lot of the Pipestone tornado. But then you look at the velocity valid at the same time.


There's some rotation, but it's a) weak and b) broad.

Why? After all the hype about today, after the high risk, after the 30% hatched tornado area per SPC, after all that, why?

There might be a hint in the 00Z Little Rock, AR, sounding and hodograph.


Notice the hodograph. Notice that it's almost a straight line, not a loop, and certainly not a sickle? Straight line hodographs, remember, tend to favour splitting storms with no particular split dominating. This hodograph loops a little, slightly favouring the right split.

But the low-level jet just hasn't been strong enough yet to help with the strong rotation. It has yet to kick in. The timing of upper wave is likely to blame. Not quite on time, not enough low-level response of the winds to falling pressure.

As Pat says, there'll always be more storms. Maybe even tonight, if the LLJ still kicks in. But come on. I may be a crazy SOB, but I will not chase at night.