Monday, May 17, 2010

May 19, 2010

May 19 looks like the beginning of a couple of good chase days.

First off, a 500 mb low is forecast to be near Denver by evening, and flow around it is forecast to be at 40 to 50 knots.



So shear shouldn't be a problem.

Moisture:



That's pretty good.

How about instability?



That looks pretty good. So if I pull up a prog sounding for the area where they look to juxtapose, in northwestern Oklahoma, here's what I get:



Closer to the warm front, south of Dodge City, KS, the low-level shear looks better but the instability not so good:



Perhaps there'll be a place in between that will have a more favourable combination of CAPE and shear, but if not it should still be a good day with HP supercells of the hail-making variety.

I'll talk about the 20th tomorrow.

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