Forecast for day 1 of our Manitoba chasers' chase

Well, the current data and model output from 00Z all point to somewhere between Morden and Fargo. That means that everyone is going to get to sleep in. Sweet.

Moisture and lift:



Dews above 65°C and good convergence.

Instability:







So there's cooling coming at 500 and 700, as well as 700 mb temperatures cooler than 10°C.

Shear:







Good deep shear and okay low-level shear.

All together, it looks like a good day, not far from Winnipeg.

And by the way, you can follow us on this website, although I don't know how to isolate just us. (We're called "Winnipeg Wx".) CoD does it for themselves here.