In short I'd target Kansas City, Missouri for a start location tomorrow. A Surface Low is forecast to develop and move Northeast to lie somewhere just NW of Kansas City by the late afternoon. Storms should initiate near the center of the low somewhere NW of Kansas City initially then develop down the cold front/wiper blade. The warm front looks to be draped over Northern Missouri oriented West-East with the cold front located near St. Joseph oriented NE to SW.
A narrow window of time will exist for tornadoes before storms move and compete with each other and eventually merge to form a giant squall line along the cold front. The orientation of the wind vectors with height show this merging tendency. So in short, be there early for initiation, witness a tornado then enjoy the light show and gust front as the sun drops. Storm motion won't be terrible...about Northeast at 40-50 km/hr
Here is a NAM 00z forecast sounding from just West of Kansas City at 7pm CDT. Cooling aloft along with forcing along the cold front should allow the CINH to weaken and storms to develop.
Low level clouds will likely linger in this area as moisture streams northward with the low level jet. They should burn off sometime after lunch allowing for sufficient heating to take place. This combined with great moisture will allow for great instability to set up with CAPE values >3000 j/kg.
As mentioned a few days ago, all facets of severe weather can be expected, but expect mainly a strong wind/hail threat...but be there early for a chance to see a tornado.
I haven't looked at what the future holds beyond tomorrow but if it looks good, I'll post about it. Tomorrow's cold front looks to flush everything out (bring order back) for a short while...but that's all I got for now!
Cheers,
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