Here are a few things to look at:
Wow. 5000 J/kg.
Good deep shear.
Where's the convergence and surface moisture? Hmmmm. ;)
So I think that a tornado watch will likely be issued by 4 PM for the area, although initiation is still a few hours away. Maybe after dark, actually, because of the cap (not shown on the SBCAPE map but apparent here):
700 mb temperatures of about 12°C. Not exactly ideal.
The decision not to go today because of time constraints looks like a good one. Unless things go significantly far this side of Bismarck, then going would have meant nearly no sleep tonight.
Well, maybe. Justin and I have been debating tomorrow's destination on text--he's busy working right now and can't afford to take that much time away. Soon, though, soon.
As of 6 PM, nothing. Some agitated cumuli in the area, but no watch yet.
ReplyDeleteThe latest GEM is showing CAPE of 2000 to 3000J/kg over the Red River Valley. Of course I'm very skeptical of that solution, but obviously I would love to see it happen. Wouldn't it be something if you ended up starting your chasing trip right here in Manitoba!
ReplyDeleteYeah, we're likely now to start in ND. We could make NE only if we were to start ridiculously early, and Justin is flying in late this evening, so we decided he should get some sleep. :)
ReplyDeleteThe 00Z NAM is now in agreement with the 18Z GFS and GEM. It brings 30C temperatures and 18 to 20C dewpoints into south-central and south-eastern Manitoba. CAPE values are forecast to be around 2000J/kg, with EHI of 3 to 4. Another bonus is that 700mb temps are a bit cooler over the Canadian territory.
ReplyDeleteOf course this could get really messed up by morning convective activity. An MCS is forecast to move through Winnipeg early in the morning, so hopefully that doesn't leave debris cloud lingering.
For the record, it's after 11 PM and still no initiation in North Dakota. Good choice not to go.
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