Model output

In 8 days, Justin and I (along with a couple of other friends) will be taking off for a few days to go chasing.

I got a text this afternoon from Justin talking about how the model output was depressing in the long term. I wouldn't go so far as to say that the text was panicked, but it seemed more than a little worried.

Well, let me say not to worry. At least not yet.

Since the U of M storm chasing trip started in 2005, I have been posting, as the trip nears, model output from day to day in order to illustrate how bad the models are. And yes, I put it that way. The models are horrible, they are always wrong and they give both false hope and false disappointment.

So as I've done before, here are the forecasts for while we're away. These are based on the 00Z model runs.

May 29: Brandon, MB (GEM) or Minot, ND (GFS)
May 30: Wall, SD (GFS) *
May 31: Beatrice, NE (GFS)
June 1: Hebron, NE (GFS) **
June 2: Des Moines, IA (GFS)
June 3: Waterloo, IA

*The GEM-Global (At least what I can access) only goes out to 240 hours.
**The GFS has only okay shear until June 1st.

So there you have it. I will keep updating this most every day (although not tomorrow, as I'll be on the road) but we'll see where the models think the action will be and how that changes from run to run. (Justin, do you want to take this up tomorrow?)

I will say this: lamenting about long-term model runs is a fruitless and frustrating thing. Granted, the closer you get to the day you're forecasting for, the more accurate the forecast will be (although I maintain that the models will never be right), and I usually start to pay attention when things are about 5 days out.

I will use as an example of this the trip I was on in 2001 with the College of DuPage, when we saw this:



And that was only a couple of days after we had written off seeing anything because the models were painting crap instability and crap flow.

I'll reserve judgment until we actually get out on the road.