Monday looks amazing tornado wise across North Central Oklahoma and South Central Kansas. A surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen as it moves out of Colorado. Gulf moisture is forecast to surge northward as the return flow kicks in. By initiation time on Monday, dewpoints should be in the upper 60's...maybe low 70's. Sorry...upper teens to low 20's in Celsius for the non-converters out there.
So in short...the MITS criteria will be met. Moisture? Check!, Instability? Check!, Trigger? Check! and Shear? tons!!!!!
Here is the model forecast sounding for South Central Kansas on Monday...the capping is obviously the problem in the image...but I honestly think it won't be an issue. Local evapotranspiration should help along with other things such as the strength of the 500mb vort max...forcing near the low...and the cooling coming in to the left of the thermal ridge. Look at the right side of the image...check out that directional and speed change with height...oh and the STEEP lapse rate...one word...AMAZING!!!
So in short...the MITS criteria will be met. Moisture? Check!, Instability? Check!, Trigger? Check! and Shear? tons!!!!!
I overlaid the 850mb, 700mb, 500mb winds and the veering profile is classic. As the low deepens winds will back to blow from the southeast which will wind up that hodograph even more...
Anyways, for you chasers out there...I'd be flirting with the triple point on Monday which looks to lie around the Kansas/Oklahoma border by 4-5pm. My starting point for the day would be at Medicine Lodge, Kansas. Obviously I'll adjust as the day nears but right now that spot looks golden for strong tornadoes moving NE at around 40-50 km/h. Warming at mid-levels will suppress convection for most of the day but as the thermal ridge moves off and the forcing moves in, storms will rapidly develop in the late afternoon. The SPC will likely upgrade to a moderate risk for Monday with a 15% hatched area for strong tornadoes. That's what I think will happen based on the 12z NAM/GFS run anyways...lol!
This is of course in model land but the models have been showing this convective signal for days now...so obviously confidence is growing in the forecast. Monday looks to be the 'real' day. An amazing tornado event in tornado alley...finally!!!!!!!!!!! I'm done with Dixie Alley chases.
Anyways, for you chasers out there...I'd be flirting with the triple point on Monday which looks to lie around the Kansas/Oklahoma border by 4-5pm. My starting point for the day would be at Medicine Lodge, Kansas. Obviously I'll adjust as the day nears but right now that spot looks golden for strong tornadoes moving NE at around 40-50 km/h. Warming at mid-levels will suppress convection for most of the day but as the thermal ridge moves off and the forcing moves in, storms will rapidly develop in the late afternoon. The SPC will likely upgrade to a moderate risk for Monday with a 15% hatched area for strong tornadoes. That's what I think will happen based on the 12z NAM/GFS run anyways...lol!
Here is the model forecast sounding for South Central Kansas on Monday...the capping is obviously the problem in the image...but I honestly think it won't be an issue. Local evapotranspiration should help along with other things such as the strength of the 500mb vort max...forcing near the low...and the cooling coming in to the left of the thermal ridge. Look at the right side of the image...check out that directional and speed change with height...oh and the STEEP lapse rate...one word...AMAZING!!!
If I could chase this event...I would. Hint Hint Rob!!!
Below is a video from the EF-3 tornado that occurred the day before the 'high risk' outbreak day last weekend (April 30th) This is why chasing in Arkansas is terrible as I had mentioned a few posts earlier.
Below is a video from the EF-3 tornado that occurred the day before the 'high risk' outbreak day last weekend (April 30th) This is why chasing in Arkansas is terrible as I had mentioned a few posts earlier.
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