First off, a 500 mb low is forecast to be near Denver by evening, and flow around it is forecast to be at 40 to 50 knots.
So shear shouldn't be a problem.
Moisture:
That's pretty good.
How about instability?
That looks pretty good. So if I pull up a prog sounding for the area where they look to juxtapose, in northwestern Oklahoma, here's what I get:
Closer to the warm front, south of Dodge City, KS, the low-level shear looks better but the instability not so good:
Perhaps there'll be a place in between that will have a more favourable combination of CAPE and shear, but if not it should still be a good day with HP supercells of the hail-making variety.
I'll talk about the 20th tomorrow.
No comments:
Post a Comment