An overnight MCS rumbled across northern Oklahoma last night. This pooped out an outflow boundary that's currently sitting near Oklahoma City, and this is just reinforcing the baroclinicity of the warm front. This warm front wends its way west to a low-pressure area near Amarillo, TX, south of which (so very conveniently) extends a dryline.
The intersection of the dryline and the warm front is prime territory for tornadic supercell formation and maintenance. However, with the deep shear in place, supercells, possibly tornadic and likely containing large hail, will be likely throughout the more or less uncapped warm sector.
SBCAPEs will likely be over 3000 J/kg and deep shear 50 to 60 knots. Low-level shear will be a bit harder to come by, but backing winds near the intersection of the dryline and the warm front should make for a highly favourable setup for a long-lived, damaging tornadic supercell.
So today will be all about monitoring the outflow/warm front and its intersection with the dryline. I suspect that by this time tomorrow we will be hearing stories on the news about how a bunch of chasers caught a picturesque tornado today.
My chase vacation (#1 of 3, that is) begins in 9 days. I wish it were sooner.
No comments:
Post a Comment