May 28, 2010

So looking at the 0Z model runs makes me pretty certain I'm going to chase tomorrow.

Moisture is there already. Low 60s dewpoints are in most of North Dakota.
Instability is there--3000 to 4000 J/kg SBCAPE this evening in Montana.
Lift is in place with a pretty strong warm front.
Shear is looking not bad, especially for low-level shear near the front.

That's how things look this evening, and there have been a couple of tornado reports in Montana.

Now, let's look at the NAM. Focus on the area near Minot, ND.

Moisture and lift (for lift look at the convergence at the front):



Dews in the mid 60s. Nice.

Instability:



3000+ J/kg. Nice.

Shear:




Good 40+ knots of deep shear.



And even 25 knots or higher of low-level shear.

The minus for tomorrow is that this could be a cap bust. I have to go, though, because this is a high risk/high reward setup. (Although "high risk" doesn't necessarily mean SPC will issue one, but more that going there would be risky in terms of potentially not seeing anything.)