I'll start off by looking at the conditions this evening. First, let's look at the water vapour satellite image and the 500 mb chart:
The main thing I'm looking at is that big trough over the southwest states. It has it all: cold temperatures (-26°C) and a strong jet (78 knots, gleaned from the text data). The NAM was pretty consistent in painting this kind of wind speed over the region of interest, and I was shocked because this is really strong. But it's actually there; there is, therefore, no reason to believe it won't be in place for tomorrow's storms.
Now how about the surface:
Check out that moisture having made its way as far north as just south of Lubbock. I had had my concerns about the moisture being in place, but this makes me think that maybe it won't be a problem.
So what are the potential problems? First off, wave timing. The location of the wave right now tells me that it will likely be in a pretty good place for the storms. But who knows? What if there's an unresolved little wave before it that messes up the atmosphere?
Second, how about wave strength? What if there's too much lift and storms go everywhere?
Moisture, like I mentioned before, was a concern I had had. But now, not so much.
Why do I have the reaction that I do to the pseudo-word "tornadopocalypse"? I think it's because I'm a grammar nerd and I'm not a fan of the forced portmanteau.
All this said, I suspect that the SPC will go to high risk for day 1. The new NAM run is quite different from previous runs in that it doesn't paint a lot of instability along the warm front. Check this out:
Interesting. And also, it paints good instability and shear all the way down into Texas. Here are some forecast soundings. First I'll show you Oklahoma City:
And somewhere west of Dallas, about 50 miles west:
Weird, that OKC one. The Texas one is nice, though. And the NAM isn't dropping a convective signal here, either.
Curious. Is this a real thing or is it just something goofy going on in this run of the model? I mean, the GEM-regional is certainly painting precipitation there:
I can't really believe that with such a strong jet core coming in that the synoptic lift won't be enough to pop big storms down to at least the Oklahoma-Texas border.
So what would I do? Analyze, analyze, analyze.
But seriously, it depends on what my goal is; if I were chasing I'd probably hang out just south of Oklahoma City and maybe a bit west and wait for the dryline to fire things off. If I wanted to see severe weather no matter what, I'd probably stick to the city itself, perhaps north.
Monday is going to be an analysis-heavy day. Every piece of data should be gleaned for clues to how the day will evolve. Where will the 500 mb jet core go? Where will the moisture pile up most? Which area will get the most sun? Who will see the best juxtaposition of convergence and nearly-breaking cap?
I still take issue with Justin's sort-of word, but I cannot deny that it will be a big day for chasers, VORTEX2 and citizens alike.
Oh I forgot to mention storm motions. Too fast to chase--they'll be chasing you! Heads on swivels, people!
ReplyDeleteI agree with Dave...the storm motion might be dangerous.
ReplyDeleteAfter looking at things...I'd move further South then Wichita for tomorrow...I'm liking Kingfisher, Oklahoma for a start point...
OKC is in the danger zone tomorrow and that is a bit worrysome because it is a large population center...at least these tornadoes will be occurring in an area where people are 'TORNADO AWARE'
So anyways...I've shifted my area further South.
Blaine...if you're reading this you've probably realized the same thing because you've looked at things too...and will likely move South. Good luck bud, and stay safe!
SPC has just recently issued a High Risk already in their first Day 1 Outlook for today. It's definitely looking to be pretty bad later on.
ReplyDelete"...REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK AND LONG-TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES BECOMING LIKELY IN ERN OK AND SE KS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING..."
I like Justin's target area for today. Of course, I say this because I am at home and not down there, but with the fast storm motions, the likely massive chaser convergence and the terrain of NE OK, SE KS in the high risk area, I'd like to stay near I-35 between ICT and OKC and see what I can get from there. Models are showing high cape, a high EHI index and very strong bulk shear in that area as well. Current observations in the Oklahoma City area say fog/mist, and with the moisture return (stratus cover?) progged for today, I wonder if the atmosphere will recover in time for surface heating to take place? It's going to be fun to see how today plays out, and I hope chasers and citizens of the area stay safe today.
ReplyDeleteAre you guys seeing this? OKC and Wichita are both under Tornado Warnings at the momwent
ReplyDeleteIt's insane from ICT down to OKC right now. Radar reflectivity is amazing.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I was sleeping most of the day but I did manage to catch some of the action on RADAR. That storm as it was approaching Wichita was epic, and yet the one that produced in OKC didn't look that great until it got east of town, despite dropping a tornado and reports of softball-sized hail. A new blog post will come soon.
ReplyDelete